Flashback: Exploring 7 recent Belmont Stakes upsets

Did you know seven of the 10- biggest Belmont Stakes (G1) upsets have occurred since 1999?

Even though the historic 1 1/2-mile classic dates to 1867, significant long-shot winners didn’t become commonplace until the end of the 20th century. At that point, a series of high-profile Kentucky Derby/Preakness winners felt short in their bids to sweep the Triple Crown, contributing to the Belmont’s recent reputation as a source of long-shot winners.

Let’s recount history’s seven most surprising Belmont winners since 1999, noting where their upsets rank in the context of the Belmont’s 152 runnings:

1999: Lemon Drop Kid (29-1, 7th-biggest upset)

Kentucky Derby and Preakness hero Charismatic was favored at 8-5 to complete the Triple Crown, but the former claimer could finish only third and was pulled up with a career-ending injury right after the finish. In the meantime, the unheralded 29-1 shot Lemon Drop Kid (ninth in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Grade 2 Peter Pan) produced a tenacious rally from eighth place to beat 54-1 shot Vision and Verse by a nose.

Lemon Drop Kid eventually would prove his victory was no fluke. Winner of the Futurity (G1) as a juvenile, Lemon Drop Kid later added the Travers (G1), Whitney Handicap (G1), and Woodward (G1) to his accomplished resume and was voted champion older male of 2000.

2000: Commendable (18-1, 9th)

Coming off a 17th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Commendable wasn’t expected to vie for victory in the final jewel of the Triple Crown. But in a Belmont Stakes lacking the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners, Commendable outran his odds, tracking a modest early pace before taking command to score under a hand ride by 1 1/2 lengths.

Though he later placed in multiple Grade 1 races, Commendable retired with the Belmont as the only stakes win of his career.

2002: Sarava (70-1, 1st)

A strong field assembled for the 2002 Belmont, with Triple Crown hopeful War Emblem the 5-4 favorite to prevail. No one seemed keen to support Sir Barton Stakes winner Sarava, who started at 70-1. But when War Emblem stumbled at the break and failed to bring his A game, Sarava took advantage, rallying smartly from mid-pack to win by half a length over future three-time Grade 1 winner and $5.7 million earner Medaglia d’Oro.

Sarava’s victory was – and remains - the biggest upset in Belmont Stakes history, topping the 65-1 surprise from Sherluck in 1961.

2004: Birdstone (36-1, 5th)

Fan favorite Smarty Jones ran too good to lose in the 2004 Belmont. Favored at 35-100 after dominating the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Smarty Jones carved out some of the fastest internal splits in Belmont Stakes history, leading by 3 1/2 lengths through a blazing 1 1/4 miles in 2:00.52.

But this torrid pace set the stage for a late-running victory from Birdstone. The 2003 Champagne (G1) winner and future Travers (G1) hero rebounded from an eighth-place effort in the Kentucky Derby to rally and beat Smarty Jones by a length at odds of 36-1, the fifth-biggest surprise in Belmont history.

2008: Da’ Tara (38-1, 4th)

Coming off a runner-up effort in the Barbaro Stakes, Da’ Tara was the longest shot in the 2008 Belmont field at odds of 38-1. But after dashing to the front through steady fractions, Da’ Tara forgot to stop. When Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown unexpectedly eased up around the final turn, Da’ Tara roared to a daylight lead and drove home on top by 5 1/4 lengths.

Like Commendable, Da’ Tara retired with the Belmont standing as his lone stakes win.

2011: Ruler On Ice (24-1, 8th)

When Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom stumbled badly at the start, and when Preakness hero Shackleford failed to see out the 1 1/2-mile distance, the 2011 Belmont was ripe for an upset. Enter Ruler On Ice, runner-up in the Federico Tesio Stakes. The 24-1 shot tracked a slow pace over a sloppy track, then turned back a challenge from fellow long shot Stay Thirsty to prevail by three-quarters of a length.

Ruler On Ice is another long-shot Belmont winner who counts the Triple Crown’s final jewel as his lone stakes win, though he did go on to finis6 third in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

2016: Creator (15-1, 10th)

The most recent Belmont upset of historic magnitude came courtesy of Creator. Despite winning the Arkansas Derby (G1) during the spring, Creator was dismissed at 16-1 at Belmont Park, with bettors likely discouraged by his 13th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

But Creator was ready to roll in the Belmont. Benefiting from a perfect ground-saving ride, Creator shifted outside just in time to rally down the lane and win by a nose, securing his place among history’s Top 10 highest-priced Belmont winners.

Do you think we’ll see another historic upset in the 2021 Belmont Stakes?