6 Breeders' Cup favorites to fade
Quite a few surprising favorites were named when the morning line for the 2020 Breeders' Cup was released on Monday. In many races, favoritism at post time could go in multiple directions. With so much depth on tap, this Breeders' Cup could produce many vulnerable favorites and some of the biggest prices in recent memory.
Racing experts from across the country helped us pinpoint horses at low prices who are likely to come up short in this year's Breeders' Cup.
[RELATED: Get Expert Analysis & Tickets for All 14 Breeders' Cup Races!]
I have to say I think Got Stormy is the favorite to fade. I was on the fence with Rushing Fall, but I think this is the one. She was a narrow winner with a killer late kick locally over less than firm ground and she has a lot of back class to lean on, but I think the foes here are formidable for a horse who is new to the turf sprint. I like the fact she has a 5 1/2-furlong win under the belt to sharpen her up, but I don't think the overland route is going to help her against this bunch and there are going to be better horses than Into Mystic getting the jump on her.
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2. Get aggressive early, go to the front, and put himself inside of a speed duel while setting much faster fractions than is customary of him. All while hoping to hold on late.
Gamine, Filly & Mare Sprint - Rachel McLaughlin
Racing Analyst at Indiana Grand, @RacingRachelM, @IGRaceCourse
There is no question the game plan in this race for Serengeti Empress is to go for the lead. She is a “need the lead” type horse. Gamine also sends. She is very fast, but I’m not sure she has as much early speed as Serengeti, who comes out of that gate like a rocket. Can Gamine stalk the pace? We will see, but if they both send I think that they will burn out battling each other on the front end. In which case, I am hoping that Serengeti holds on and wins as she is my favorite horse in training right now.
She also broke her maiden at my home track, Indiana Grand, back in 2018 so she holds a special place in my heart. I had her picked to win the Kentucky Oaks last year and have interviewed Tom Amoss many times about her. If she can not hold on to what I am assuming will be a blistering pace, then this race sets up for a closer or someone off the pace. Sticking with the hometown bias I have going in this race, I’m hoping that it is Inthemidstofbiz for trainer Cipriano Contreras, who calls Indiana home, and Manny Esquivel, who rides full time in Indiana.
Even with his string of three straight Grade 1 victories, Improbable is going to win without me in the Classic on Saturday. He had a dream trip in the Whitney after Tom’s d’Etat stumbled so badly out of the gate, and I truly do not believe we saw even close to the best of Maximum Security last out in the Awesome Again. This is a shorter-priced contender that I am willing to let beat me in a deep Classic field.
I think this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is a very deep rendition, and while I think Mutasaabeq’s win in the G3 Bourbon was a good performance last time out, he’s going to be facing much tougher in here. He benefited from a very quick pace up front in the Bourbon and closed well to win his first and only turf race.
Magical, Turf - Ron Nicoletti
Gulfstream Park Analyst, @ronic17
I’m trying and beat morning line favorite Magical (Ire), and the other potent Euro-shippers, in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf, with red-hot Channel Maker. The son of English Channel, conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, comes into the turf looking for his 3rd consecutive victory at the 12-furlong distance. The 6-year-olds stellar performance in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer was topped by his front-running cruise-under-the-wire score in the G1 Turf Classic.