Five Breeders' Cup favorites to bet against

It is easy to get caught up in the accolades of racing's top runners ahead of the Breeders' Cup, but it is important to remember that favorites have won only 31% of Breeders' Cup races historically.

The favorite likely will win four or five of the 14 races, which leaves many ripe for an upset. It is vital to identify the favorites that look the most vulnerable. Our team analyzes five horses who appear primed to disappoint chalk players in this year's Breeders' Cup.

Gamine, Filly & Mare Sprint - Mark Midland, HRN CEO

[RELATED — Prospective fields & odds for all 14 Breeders' Cup races]

Improbable, Classic - Jarrod Horak, HRN Handicapper

Vekoma, Sprint - Padraic Manocchio, HRN Content Producer

Vekoma is a deserving favorite for the Breeders' Cup Sprint based on accomplishments, but the best resume does not ensure a trip to the Winner's Circle on Breeders' Cup Saturday. 

Vekoma is at his best going seven furlongs or at a one-turn mile. The six-furlong Sprint is too sharp for him.

If distance concerns were not enough of a reason to fade the Sprint favorite, then his layoff certainly is.

He has gone four months without running, went two months without working and skipped a planned prep race.

That is not the pattern one wants to see when playing any horse, especially one at low odds.

This race has a nice blend of upside in Yaupon and Nashville and proven consistency in C Z Rocket and Diamond Oops. It would not be surprising if Vekoma runs off the board.

Aunt Pearl, Juvenile Fillies Turf - Mike Shutty, Super Screener author

She won on this turf course just 4 weeks ago, and on that day she caught an ultra firm, drought-stricken turf course and broke a track record. Rain and cooler weather since should have the turf course back to a more lush state.

Pace types struggle in this race, and she’ll have company on the front end. If she secures the lone lead, however, she’ll be tough to get past.

Get Mike's take on all 14 Breeders' Cup races —with his rankings and wagering strategies — in the Super Screener. It's available now - get a head start on a big BC score!

Vekoma, Sprint - Reinier Macatangay, HRN Handicapper

If Vekoma starts as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he is a play-against because of the four-month layoff and the probable lack of early pace.

The four-month layoff is significant because most horses require a prep race or two in order to win a Breeders’ Cup race. Although Vekoma does show seven workouts in the last 60 days, workouts cannot replace the benefits of racing into shape, at least not for all horses. Think about the fact that every trainer in the Sprint will crank up their runner to 100 percent.

Also, Vekoma might need to close from mid-pack or farther in the Sprint because of the cutback. Vekoma took the lead by default in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1), but he lacks the natural speed to lead at six furlongs. As of this writing, the Sprint has only one or two pacesetters in Yaupon and Nashville, both from the Steve Asmussen barn. Both horses are quality runners.

Vekoma could overcome the adversity and win, but it makes more sense to search elsewhere.