Kentucky Derby 2022: Picking order of finish, from 1st to last

With potentially life-changing payouts available in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, attempting to pick the order of finish is more than just a fun exercise. 50-cent trifecta minimums allow bettors to go deep underneath to find the right long shot to spice up the ticket. There appears to be a select few horses that have a legitimate chance of winning this year's Kentucky Derby, but do not be surprised if chaos reigns supreme in the exotics. Below we predict the order of finish in the 2022 Run for the Roses from first to last.

1) #3 Epicenter - 7-2: This brilliant colt is the most likely winner of the Derby as he checks every box. He has versatility, tactical speed, experience, class, a win over the track and a win at the co-longest distance of any prep. Bettors seem to be overlooking that he already defeated morning-line favorite Zandon without moving a muscle. Sure Zandon has improved since the Risen Star Stakes (G2), but so has this colt. Asmussen is overdue to find Derby glory and it very well could be on Saturday.

2) #6 Messier - 8-1: This son of Empire Maker was a tad disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) when getting run down by his stablemate Taiba, but I expect him to turn the tables here. Like Epicenter, he has the right blend of speed, stamina and experience. He is at his best away from Los Alamitos and without blinkers and he has multiple performances to draw from that are fast enough to compete. He got caught up in Forbidden Kingdom's fast pace last out, but has proven he can sit in more of a tracking position and be successful with John Velazquez aboard.

3) #8 Charge It - 20-1: The upside and value are tremendous with this well-bred colt. He was likely best in the Florida Derby (G1) when breaking a bit slowly and running greenly throughout the stretch. He will continue to improve with experience and distance and has a perfect style to sit a great trip. He learned plenty from his first stakes experience and that should help tap into his potential to make noise at a big price in this spot.

4) #10 Zandon - 3-1: This lightly raced colt continues to improve and put everything together with a powerful late kick in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). He has been the buzz of the mornings leading up to the Derby and Flavien Prat and Chad Brown are always dangerous. He is a strong exotics contender, but I do not believe he is any more talented than the horses above him on this list and he gives up a tactical edge to all of them. 

5) #12 Taiba - 12-1: This horse is a true enigma. He is more likely to win than Zandon or Charge It, but I also would not be shocked if he ran 12th. He will be at the top of some of my tickets and nowhere to be found on others. There is no question that the talent is there. Off just a maiden sprint, he won the Santa Anita Derby in impressive fashion. He cost $1.7 million and has looked brilliant in two starts, putting up speed figures that top the field. He would have to win the Kentucky Derby in only his third start, a feat that was last accomplished in 1883. On top of that, he only had one work since the Santa Anita Derby and it was not a pretty one at that. He could have the talent of Justify, but he has even more questions entering the Derby than Justify did.

6) #1 Mo Donegal - 10-1: This colt closed like a freight train to win the Wood Memorial (G2) and will be among the most dangerous finishers in this race. Recent history says it is smart to toss the Wood Memorial winner and though I still do not think it was the strongest of the preps by any means, it certainly was a better prep than its recent reputation. He owns a win over Zandon and should thrive at the distance. He typically breaks slowly and a bad break from the rail could leave him last early. He will pass plenty of horses, but I am not sure he will be able to pass 19 of them.

7) #19 Zozos - 20-1: Like Charge It, he is lightly raced and dangerous for top connections. He will really be stretching his breeding and will be dueling from an outside draw, but he showed in the Louisiana Derby (G2) that he can battle and hang in there for 1 3/16 miles. If he can finish within three lengths of Epicenter again, then he should be right there. If the speed hangs around, he could get a piece. 

8) #7 Crown Pride - 20-1: This intriguing Japanese import will have no problem with the Derby distance and is undefeated in three starts on dry land. Japan has had a massive year internationally and he could be good enough to get a slice at a big price while facing the best competition of his life. Downgrade his chances on an off-track as his only poor race came in the mud.

9) #15 White Abarrio - 10-1: The Florida Derby winner has done little wrong, but I feel like his Grade 1 win was the pinnacle with a regression on the horizon. Saffie Joseph and Tyler Gaffalione had never won the Florida Derby and despite a training hiccup, they pulled out all the stops to have this horse ready to go as if it was the Kentucky Derby. Charge It and Simplification did not have their ideal trips, which helped this colt as well. He could get a piece, but I can not see him improving off his Florida Derby over a track that may not be his best.

10) #13 Simplification -  20-1: Is another honest runner who should be fighting for a slice underneath. He pressed the pace in the Florida Derby, but will be taken back in this race, a style which I believe he prefers. He defeated the troubled Mo Donegal by a head for second place in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), but other than that, has never defeated anyone of consequence. 

11) #11 Pioneer of Medina - 30-1: He removes blinkers for the Derby, which is intriguing as he has been close to some of the best in the division and an equipment change may help even the playing field. Even with that said, he still needs to prove he can handle a hot pace and keep going at this elongated distance. 

12) #16 Cyberknife - 20-1: It is hard to discount an improving Brad Cox runner, but the crop in Arkansas this year was simply too weak to ignore. He will be a useful horse, but appears too slow on all figures at this stage to make a significant impact. 

13) #5 Smile Happy - 20-1: The son of Runhappy went off favorite against Epicenter and Zandon in back-to-back starts because he has ability. The bad news is that he lost both of those races as the competition got tougher and the distance got longer. I can not foresee him running the best race of his life at this distance. 

14) #14 Barber Road - 30-1: His closing style will allow this consistent runner to pass a few tired horses, but he participated in all four of Arkansas' slow preps and could not win any of them. He would need to take a large step forward to keep his in-the-money streak alive.

15) #18 Tawny Port - 30-1: He kept to his task nicely to beat a bunch of allowance horses in the Lexington Stakes (G3), but his fifth-place effort in the Risen Star showed that he is not quite up to this level on the dirt.

16) #9 Tiz the Bomb - 30-1: He is clearly a different animal on turf and synthetic than on dirt. His debut at Churchill was poor and his seventh-place finish in the Holy Bull was not any better. His wire-to-wire win with no dirt kicked in his face at Ellis Park does not inspire confidence over the surface. He will be dangerous once returning to turf once more. 

17) #17 Classic Causeway - 30-1: Respect his form at Tampa Bay, but even at his best he does not appear good enough to compete with these. Following his last-place finish in the Florida Derby, it is hard to have confidence in this speedy runner who will face pressure from all sides early.

18) #2 Happy Jack - 30-1: A California shipper winning the Kentucky Derby is rarely surprising in recent years, but he would be an absolute shock after losing his three preps by a combined 50 lengths. 

19) #20 Ethernal Road - 30-1: He hung like a picture when losing to a 70-1 shot in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and things have only gotten worse since then.

20) #4 Summer Is Tomorrow - 30-1: He was run down by Crown Pride in the UAE Derby (G2) and the water gets deeper here. Know him early, but expect him to back up when faced with added American pace pressure.