First to last: Picking the full order of finish in the Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby is among the best betting races in the world each year because there is typically an opportunity to find value in at least one of the key exotic slots, leading to a potentially big payout.

Essential Quality is a deserving favorite who could easily win the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but he does not enter the First Saturday in May with the dominating performances that made the likes of American Pharoah and Justify seem invincible heading into the Grade 1 race. 

The Brad Cox trainee seems like the safest bet in the field to at least fill out the exacta, but is he the horse to beat?

Below we rank all 20 horses in this year's field to see who is capable of beating the favorite, which horses are being overvalued and which long shots could spice up the exotics.

1. Rock Your World (#15, 5-1): No horse has benefited more in the last week than the John Sadler trainee. The removal of Caddo River will make life much easier for the Santa Anita Derby winner, and he drew beautifully for his style in post 15. For a horse who has never had dirt kicked in his face, an inside draw could have been problematic. From post 15 he could make the lead with a clean break or he could track a runner such as Midnight Bourbon and lay a comfortable second before pouncing. He appears to be a future star in a field full of solid but unspectacular runners.

2. Essential Quality (#14, 2-1). It is difficult to knock the undefeated champion who does what it takes to win each time. He gradually seems to be getting better and better and he looks like he will handle the added distance without a problem. His versatile running style should help him work out a good trip, and he is drawn perfectly.

3. O Besos (#6, 20-1). This is the long shot that needs to be included on all tickets. He was the only horse closing into a Louisiana Derby (G2) dominated by front-runners. He will thrive at this distance and will get much more pace to close into in this spot. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved by 5 points or more every time he has run. The son of Orb has been working beautifully leading up to the Derby as well.

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4. Known Agenda (#1, 6-1). Todd Pletcher's colt has always had promise, but he has really put things together with the addition of blinkers. The Florida Derby (G1) winner is among a select few who could win this year's Derby, but he must work out a trip from a tricky rail draw.

5. Hot Rod Charlie (#9, 8-1). It is hard to imagine Doug O'Neill winning his third Kentucky Derby, but this colt brings strong credentials into the race. He ran a good second to Essential Quality as a 2-year-old and has progressed nicely at age 3. His tactical style should allow him to sit a nice trip from a cozy post.

6. Sainthood (#5, 50-1). The May foal does not stack up on form, but he may have the upside to fill out the bottom of trifectas or superfectas. He was much the best in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) when shut off in the stretch and will enjoy switching back to dirt. 50-1 is too big of a price to not take a chance with this runner underneath.

7. Medina Spirit (#8, 15-1). Trainer Bob Baffert knows a thing or two about preparing a horse for the Kentucky Derby and he has been chasing the best in this crop all year. This colt already owns a win over Hot Rod Charlie and has shown he is willing to hang in there and fight. He is unlikely to win but is a good horse to use in the exotics. 

8. Mandaloun (#7, 15-1). This is the hardest horse to figure out in this year's Derby. He hung like a picture in the Lecomte (G3) when losing to two horses he is supposed to be better than. He added blinkers and looked like a new focused horse when winning the Risen Star (G2) with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, but then threw in a dud with no visible excuse in the Louisiana Derby. He seems to have the ability to contend but has too many questions marks to be able trust heading into the first Saturday in May. 

9. Highly Motivated (#17, 10-1). Chad Brown's colt may prove to be among the most talented runners in this crop, but I do not feel it will be at classic distances. He reminds me of Brown's Practical Joke, who was ultimately better around one turn. He almost defeated Essential Quality in the Blue Grass (G2), but he had everything his way that day at a shorter distance, and that big effort could have taken some starch out of him.

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10. Midnight Bourbon (#10, 20-1). He deserves credit for his consistency, but those races in Louisiana favored speed. He may be up against it with Rock Your World and others breathing down his neck.

11. Helium (#12, 50-1). The undefeated colt certainly should be lower than 50-1, but he would need to improve quite a bit to win in here. His Tampa Bay Derby (G2) win was a beaut as he was wide every step of the way and dug in deep to win. The Tampa Bay Derby form has not held up very well, and I wish he had another race for further development prior to the Kentucky Derby.

12. Super Stock (#18, 30-1). It is rare to see an Arkansas Derby (G1) winner sitting at 30-1, but he would have been 50-1 based on his form prior to that win. He received a perfect setup in that race, where they walked home. There are faster closers lined up in this field.

13. King Fury (#16, 20-1). He earned a big figure in the Lexington (G2), but that is tough to trust. The race fell apart for him over a sloppy track, and his previous form simply does not stack up with the best in the division. 

14. Dynamic One (#11, 20-1). He is the horse I am most interested in from the Wood Memorial (G2), which does not say much. It took him four tries to break maiden, and he did so in a five-horse field before being unable to hold off his 72-1 stablemate in New York's woefully slow prep.

15. Soup and Sandwich (#19, 30-1). Similar to Highly Motivated, this colt has immense talent but might be better suited to shorter distances. His hand will be forced from a wide draw as he may have to try to gun for the lead. There are too many circumstances working against him in this spot.

16. Keepmeinmind (#4, 50-1). He impressed as a 2-year-old when running big races in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile as a maiden, but his form has taken a step backwards at the age of 3. It is intriguing that they remove the blinkers for the Derby, but that seems like a bit of a Hail Mary at this point.

17. Bourbonic (#20, 30-1). Todd Pletcher's colt could not win an allowance at Parx before winning the Wood Memorial, which is a sign of just how weak that race was. It is safe to put a line through anyone coming out of New York, including this surprising last-out winner.

18. Hidden Stash (#13, 50-1). Victoria Oliver's colt looks in too deep after running a distant fourth in the Blue Grass and second behind Helium, who covered much more ground, in the Tampa Bay Derby.

19. Brooklyn Strong (#3, 50-1). This $5,000 purchase would be a great story if he won, but the only figure he has run that even remotely makes him a contender came in the slop. His missed training ahead of the Wood Memorial but still needed to run better if he is going to compete with the likes of these.

20. Like the King (#2, 50-1): This is a tough post draw with his style, and the Jeff Ruby Steaks winner has run poorly in his only two tries over dirt. It is hard to imagine this Wesley Ward runner making an impact.