First-time starters: 5-star entries to watch Monday

Horse Racing Nation's first-time starter power ratings have identified 11 horses rated as five-star debuts for Monday. These debut runners represent some of the most promising first-time starters based on comprehensive analysis of workout ratings, trainer statistics, sire records and other key factors. We've cut down that list to show you five of the best-rated first-time starters on Monday. 

Overall, HRN's 5-star rated first-timers are winning at 23.1% over the last 1,702 starts and overperforming their morning lines by 37%. 

We'll see if we can improve on that 23.1% win rate with five first-timers we've picked out here. Monday's list includes well-bred firsters at Ellis Park and well-placed firsters at Louisiana Downs, Parx and Prairie Meadows. 

Ellis Park race 6, no. 4 Rain Gold, 3-1

Race 6 at Ellis Park is a wide-open one-mile turf route for 2-year-old fillies, and only three of the nine runners have experience.

Rain Gold debuts with 3-1 morning-line odds and perfect 100 ratings on HRN's First Time Power Ratings in both track and barn workout categories. Additionally, trainer Cherie DeVaux shows a 15.6% win rate with first-time starters at Ellis Park, showing the Henderson, Ky., track is a stable target. 

Rain Gold is by More Than Ready and out of Hit It Rich, a three-time Grade 3-winning daughter of Smart Strike. Hit It Rich won seven of 18 races in her career, including four wins and $404,000 on turf from 11 starts. Rain Gold has had seven siblings try turf, and five of them found the winner's circle.

Ellis Park race 9, no. 7 Trust Account, 5-2

Trust Account makes his debut for trainer Brendan Walsh at 5-2 odds in another 2-year-old filly turf route, and she is as royally bred for the turf as they come out of a Breeders' Cup winner who foaled a Breeders' Cup winner. She's out of Grade 1 winner Shared Account, who captured the 2010 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and banked over $1.65 million in her career. Shared Account is also the dam of Grade 1 winner Sharing, who won the 2019 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and earned over $1 million in her career as well. In total, four of Shared Account's offspring have tried the turf and two have won. 

The colt by Into Mischief has stats that fit well with this field, which lacks stars. Walsh shows an 11.2% win rate with first-time starters overall and maintains a 12.3% success rate at Ellis Park. 

Parx Racing race 3, no. 4 Chartage, 10-1

This Parx first-timer is a bit more of a price in a full field of 12. Chartage makes his debut for trainer Robert Mosco at 10-1 odds in the dirt sprint. The colt by Uptowncharlybrown shows a strong 98 barn workout rating despite limited data but carries a lower 39 track workout rating.

Mosco demonstrates solid success with first-time starters at Parx Racing, winning at a 16.7% rate in 24 attempts. The trainer shows an 18.2% success rate specifically with debut dirt sprinters at Parx. Uptowncharlybrown maintains a 13.4% win rate in dirt sprint races overall, though his first-time starter production has been more modest at 11.4%.

Louisiana Downs race 6, no. 2 Kaydences Calamity, 2-1

Kaydences Calamity enters as the 2-1 favorite for trainer Jonathan Wong. The colt by Violence shows a strong 94 barn workout rating but carries a lower 57 track workout rating. Wong maintains a 17.9% win rate with first-time starters overall but is winless in two tries at Louisiana Downs. Violence demonstrates solid production with first-time starters in dirt sprints at 20.6% and maintains a 17.7% win rate in dirt sprints overall. Wong and jockey Jose Nava-Marin have combined for a strong 37.0% win rate in their recent partnership.

Prairie Meadows race 7, no. 2 Pardoned, 3-1

Pardoned debuts Monday night for trainer Kevin Eikleberry at 3-1 odds in this dirt sprint at Prairie Meadows. The colt by No Parole carries modest workout ratings with a 35 barn rating and 26 track rating based on limited data, but Eikleberry shows strong success with first-time starters, winning at a 30.7% overall rate and 33.3% at Prairie Meadows.

The trainer maintains a 30.1% success rate with debut dirt sprinters and 32.3% with debut dirt sprints at Prairie Meadows. No Parole has limited offspring data but shows a 20.0% win rate in dirt sprints with only five starters.

HRN's First Time Power Ratings are available as part of HRN's handicapping products available at Picks.HorseRacingNation.com where you can learn more about HRN's unique reports including the Super Screener, Sire Moves, Pace Report, Hot Jockey report and more.