First-Timer Power: How to play Churchill's Sunday maiden races
Churchill Downs reopens for live racing on Sunday, Oct 30 with an 11 race card that's all about the 2-year-olds. Horse Racing Nation's First-Timer Power Ratings ranks debut runners from one to five, with five being the best. The five-star first-timers are currently winning at a 21.6 percent rate, while those receiving one star are only successful 4.2 percent of the time.
Click here for Churchill Downs entries and results.
In race 1, there's only one five-star first-timer. No. 8 Onasa (10-1 morning line) has some bullet drills on the work tab coming in for his debut. This son of Always Dreaming is trained by Larry Rivelli, who is 30 percent with 2-year-olds. Onasa has some big shoes to fill, as he is the half brother to Breeders' Cup Classic contender and multiple graded stakes winner Epicenter.
Race 2 features two five-star debut runners, but they are both on the also-eligible list in No. 13 Varsity Blonde (6-1) and No. 16 Moment to Shine (5-1). Both are worth a closer look should they draw in to the main body of the field. This leaves us with three four-star options, the biggest price of which is No. 8 Fairy Hair (15-1).
Fairy Hair is a first foal out of Grace and Dignity who won early, winning her first two starts sprinting on synthetic at Woodbine. This daughter of More Than Ready goes out for trainer Eddie Kenneally with jockey Corey Lanerie aboard. However when this duo teams up, they are currently 0-for-17 together.
The five-star in race 4 draws all the way to the outside in No. 12 Tough Legacy (12-1). This daughter of Hard Spun's most successful sibling was a graded stakes winner on the turf, and Tough Legacy does have some turf works. Perhaps this one's preferred surface will ultimately be the grass.
Without a five-star horse in race 7, debut runners take on a serious contender with experience in No. 8 Joking Way (5-2). Seeing the lack of first-timer power present in this race, it could be a sign that the runners with a previous start are the way to wager.