First Look: Arkansas Derby leads 6 weekend graded stakes

Bob Baffert's undefeated Concert Tour looks for his first Grade 1 win Saturday in the Arkansas Derby. For the rest of the field it is a last chance to get an invitation to run for the roses.

The Arkansas Derby offers 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby points to the top four finishers. At No. 13 on the leaderboard with 50 points, Concert Tour already has made the cut. Most of the others in the likely field will look for a top-two finish to get in the Churchill Downs starting gate on May 1.

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The Arkansas Derby and the Lexington (G3), which offers 20-8-4-2 points, are the final points preps for the Run for the Roses.

Here is a look at the likely fields for those races and the weekend's other graded stakes.

Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn, 1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds and up

With Life Is Good's injury and Medina Spirit's loss in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), undefeated Concert Tour is firmly positioned as Bob Baffert's leading 3-year-old. Baffert also is expected to enter Rebel (G2) runner-up Hozier, who needs a top-three finish for a trip to the Kentucky Derby. Caddo River had two wins before the Rebel, including January's Smarty Jones. Roman Centurian, winless in two tries since breaking his maiden in January, was scratched Saturday from the Santa Anita Derby and is expected to return here.

Lexington (G3), Keeneland, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up

King Fury is expected to make his 2021 debut here. Last year he won the Street Sense before coming in seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). After breaking his maiden on third try in February, Unbridled Honor finished fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Although this is a Kentucky Derby points prep, it offers only 20 points the to the winner, so none in the expected field is likely to make the cut even with a victory.

Other graded stakes

Friday

Maker’s Mark Mile (G1), Keeneland, 1 mile (turf), 4-year-olds and up

Hit the Road has won four straight, including the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) last out. Ride a Comet won 6 of 7 starts before finishing seventh in the Kilroe Mile. Smooth Like Straight has hit the board in all but the first of his 13 starts and was second in the Kilroe.

Saturday

Jenny Wiley (G1), Keeneland 1 1/16 miles (turf), fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up

Two transplants from France would be making their 2021 debuts for Chad Brown: Etoile, who began racing in the U.S. in May, and Tamahere, winner of the Sands Point Stakes (G2) in October. Juliet Foxtrot has hit the board in 10 of her last 11 starts.

Ben Ali (G3), Keeneland, 1 1/8 miles, 4-year-olds and up

Keeneland provided only two probables for this one: Night Ops, who has had two third-place finishes this year after a six-month layoff, and Fearless, winner of the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) after an eight-month layoff.

Count Fleet Sprint (G3), Oaklawn, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up

This would be a rubber match between last year's winner, Whitmore, and C Z Rocket. Whitmore beat C Z Rocket by 3 1/4 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Sprint then lost to him by a neck in the Hot Springs Stakes.