Finding Kentucky Derby winner with Final Fractions Theory

Let’s get this out of the way. It did not work last year. So was Medina Spirit’s first-place finish an outlier? Or was it the start of a new trend?

That is what horseplayers might want to ask themselves if they try to apply the Final Fractions Theory to Kentucky Derby 2022.

This is the formula that did not work last year. But it sure did every year for the 10 runnings of the Derby right before that.

RELATED: Early look at potential Kentucky Derby field.

For the uninitiated, the Final Fractions Theory takes a horse’s finish in his last prep at 1 1/8 miles and uses it to gauge whether he can succeed at 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. It was pioneered by longtime Louisville turf writer and publicist Jennie Rees, who was inspired by something a trainer told her.

“Phil Thomas said, ‘I bet if you looked at it, horses that won the Derby came fast the last quarter-mile of their last prep,’ ” Rees recalled five years ago when she was asked about the formula.

Since charts for 1 1/8-mile races usually are not parsed to show times at the quarter pole, Rees went to plan B.

“I could compute the last eighth and the last three-eighths,” she said. “I found there is a pattern, definitely.”

The magic numbers for that pattern are 13 and 38. If a horse goes no slower than 13.0 seconds in the last furlong or 38.0 seconds in the last three furlongs of his final prep, then he fits a winning pattern. Since 1990, 27 of 31 Derby winners in May checked at least one of those boxes.

Medina Spirit did not. Neither did Mandaloun, the second-place finisher who was awarded the Derby victory 261 days after Medina Spirit failed his post-race drug test.

Eleven of the 23 horses who are current candidates for this year’s Derby met at least one of the Final Fractions Theory standards. None was faster at the end of his final prep than Mo Donegal, who was clocked Saturday at 11.9 seconds for his last furlong and 35.5 for his last three in his Wood Memorial (G2) victory.

These were the final one- and three-eighths times for this year’s Derby candidates, including asterisks that merit an explanation:

Three races – the Louisiana Derby (G2), the UAE Derby (G2) and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) – muddy the water.

The Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby are not 1 1/8 miles. The Louisiana Derby is 1 3/16 miles, and the UAE Derby is run at 1,900 meters, or 1 3/16 miles plus 12 yards. Some mathematical deductions were used to determine comparable final fractions from each race.

The Jeff Ruby was run on a synthetic surface, so that translation may or may not work. When the race was known as the Spiral Stakes, it did produce Animal Kingdom in 2011, the last Derby winner to defy the Final Fractions Theory before Medina Spirit/Mandaloun.

In Due Time, who has not raced since he finished second to Simplification on March 5 in the Fountain of Youth (G2), has yet to go longer than 1 1/16 miles. His time was extrapolated to presume what he would have done through 1 1/8 miles, making his projection shaky at best.

The figures for Tawny Port, Ethereal Road and In Due Time are temporary, since their final prep will be the 1 1/16-mile Lexington Stakes (G3) on Saturday at Keeneland.

To be consistent with the earliest applications of the Final Fractions Theory, times shown on the chart are rounded to the nearest tenth of a second and determined by adding 0.2 seconds for each length a horse trailed after three-quarters of a mile and one mile, according to Equibase charts.

Three other historic prisms may be used to further narrow the list of would-be contenders.

In the last eight years, only horses with Quirin Speed Points designations of E (early) or E/P (early presser) have crossed the finish line first in the Derby, according to Brisnet. That means they were on or near the lead early. There are 14 current candidates with E or E/P next to their names, but only five – Epicenter, Zozos, Early Voting, Taiba and Messier – also passed the test of the Final Fractions Theory. (Since they have yet to race in North America, the two UAE Derby horses do not have Quirin Speed Points.)

Since 1992, 27 of 30 horses who were declared the Derby’s official winners on race day carried a best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95 into the race, as reported by Daily Racing Form. Country House was the last exception three years ago. Epicenter, Zozos, Taiba and Messier cleared that hurdle this year, but Early Voting did not.

Finally, Medina Spirit was a rare first-place finisher in the Derby who failed to bring a Brisnet Speed Rating of at least 100 into the race. Since 2000, 18 of 22 Derby horses whose names were on cashable win tickets arrived at the race with three Bris digits. After applying that last requirement, only Mo Donegal, Epicenter and Zandon remain.

This is how the chart looks when applying all these data:

Justify in 2018 was the last winning Derby horse who met all the standards – Final Fractions Theory, Quirin Speed Points, Beyer and Bris – and whose apparent victory did not turn into the agony of a torn-up ticket.

So back to the original question. Was last year an exception? Or was it a sign that the trend is changing?

With three weeks to go, anyone who knows those answers already might be on the way to cashing a winning ticket.