Fayette fair odds: Chance to beat known names adds value

Whenever entries come out for a big-money race that is not a Grade 1, and I recognize a bunch of names, I get excited, because money follows big names.

When I handicap the race, and I don't really like any of those names, I get really excited.

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So it goes with the Grade 3, $350,000 Fayette on Saturday at Keeneland, the final stakes of an action-packed 2025 fall meeting and a tremendous wagering opportunity.

Moonlight interests me most at the 8-1 morning line. My fair odds are 7-1, and I think he actually can go off longer than that morning line, anyway, which would make for a nice overlay. The Audible gelding has not been great at this 1 1/8-mile distance, but that was earlier in his career. That win last out was good enough to compete with these.

I'm not sure the Dubai World Cup (G1) winner who has won since is going to be 6-1 against this group, but that is the morning line for Hit Show. He is more likely than that with 9-2 fair odds, but I definitely don’t want to go any shorter than that, because he is carrying high weight of 126 pounds.

Bracket Buster and Gosger are two interesting 3-year-olds facing older here and possibly going in different directions. Bracket Buster won the Oklahoma Derby (G3) last out, and Gosger was a disappointing sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Both are poster colts for what I discussed said about name recognition. I expect them to be underlays.

Brad Cox trains both Hit Show and Dragoon Guard, winner of last year's Indiana Derby (G3) and West Virginia Derby (G3) who has eased back into stakes company this season. His 7-2 morning line feels light, and he is playable at a longer price given his speed.

My wagering strategy at the expected price against my fair odds is to bet Moonlight to win and to key with the Cox trainees.