Fayette fair odds: Favorite is vulnerable to pace scenario

One of the best races of Tumbarumba's career came last year, when he went from a one-turn mile at Ellis Park to a two-turn 1 1/8 miles at Remington Park. The Oscar Performance gelding finished third in the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby then but showed the added distance was no issue.

So it goes in the Fayette Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland, where Tumbarumba will return after finishing second to Three Technique in the Ack Ack Stakes (G3), a one-turn mile four weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Tumbarumba's chances in the nine-furlong Fayette get a boost because there is a chance he can be controlling speed under the hands of jockey Luis Saez.

Looking to run him down will be Hit Show, a winner of two straight, including the Lukas Classic (G2) last out on the same card as the Ack Ack. Hit Show finished behind Tumbarumba in that Oklahoma Derby, closing seven wide from 10th but left with too much to and finishing sixth of 12.

I have to think Hit Show does better than split the field here. But price-wise, we're getting better compensated that Tumbarumba can hold this group at bay than that Hit Show can run them all down.

Rattle N Roll is an interesting wild card second off the layoff after finishing third to Hit Show in the Lukas following a one-year layoff. Improvement is likely second time out, but I'm not sure he's better than Hit Show at his best so I expect an underlay here.

Lastly, I'll mention Bolzy. This is likely the longest shot on the board and isn't impossible. He has a win at this distance. I'm not sure what happened the last two starts from outside posts, but the previous pressing style wasn't present. Now Frankie Dettori gets aboard, and some aggression could make this one a surprise factor at huge odds.