Favorites fade late in Kentucky Derby 2022 prep season
What was building to be the chalkiest prep season in the Kentucky Derby points era settled into something far less predictable by the time it ended Saturday.
There were upsets in the last six points races and in six of the eight major preps this spring. Favorites won 23 of the 48 races, a 47.9 percent rate – the fourth highest in the 10 seasons since Churchill Downs established the current qualifying system.
See fair odds for Kentucky Derby 2022.
It did not look so middling a little more than two weeks ago. When Tiz the Bomb won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on April 2, favorites had put together a streak of eight consecutive victories in U.S. preps for the Derby. At that moment, 54.8 percent of the preps had been won by the shortest-priced horses. At that rate, the record 54.3 percent rate in 2014-15 looked vulnerable.
Less than a half-hour later, the chalk burn ended with White Abarrio’s victory – and Simplification’s loss – in the Florida Derby (G1).
Where favorites went only 2-for-8 (25.0 percent) in the major preps worth 100 points to each winner, they were 5-for-7 (71.4 percent) in the mid-level, 50-point races and 10-for-22 (45.5 percent) in the 10- and 20-point preps. This does not include the separate qualifying paths through Europe and Japan, where favorites went 6-for-11 (54.5 percent).
The failure of favorites in the bigger preps might have been because the fields were deeper with horses who had been held out of earlier points races, a strategy that has become more popular with horsemen in recent years.
Here is an overview of the 48 points preps during the Kentucky Derby qualifying season:
| Prep race (track) | Winner | Odds | Favorite | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-4-2-1 | ||||
| Iroquois (CD) | Major General | 4.90 | Stellar Tap (1.00) | 5th |
| American Pharoah (SA) | Corniche | .40 | Corniche | 1st |
| Champagne (BEL) | Jack Christopher | 1.70 | Jack Christopher | 1st |
| Breeders' Futurity (KEE) | Rattle N Roll | 8.70 | Classic Causeway (1.90) | 3rd |
| 20-8-4-2 | ||||
| Breeders' Cup Juvenile (DMR) | Corniche | 1.40 | Corniche | 1st |
| 10-4-2-1 | ||||
| Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) | Smile Happy | 4.80 | Classic Causeway (1.40) | 2nd |
| Remsen (AQU) | Mo Donegal | 1.45 | Zandon (1.35) | 2nd |
| Los Alamitos Futurity (LRC) | Slow Down Andy | 5.20 | Messier (.50) | 2nd |
| Springboard Mile (RP) | Make It Big | 1.30 | Make It Big | 1st |
| Gun Runner (FG) | Epicenter | 2.90 | Epicenter | 1st |
| Jerome (AQU) | Courvoisier | 4.00 | Cooke Creek (1.45) | 3rd |
| Smarty Jones (OP) | Dash Attack | 7.70 | Home Brew (2.50) | 10th |
| Sham (SA) | Newgrange | 2.70 | Rockefeller (1.50) | 2nd |
| Lecomte (FG) | Call Me Midnight | 28.50 | Pappacap (1.50) | 3rd |
| Southwest (OP) | Newgrange | 1.50 | Newgrange | 1st |
| Withers (AQU) | Early Voting | 1.30 | Early Voting | 1st |
| Holy Bull (GP) | White Abarrio | 6.00 | Mo Donegal (1.70) | 3rd |
| Robert B. Lewis (SA) | Messier | .60 | Messier | 1st |
| Sam F. Davis (TAM) | Classic Causeway | 1.60 | Classic Causeway | 1st |
| El Camino Real Derby (GG)* | Blackadder | 3.80 | Mackinnon (.60) | 2nd |
| 50-20-10-5 | ||||
| Risen Star (FG) | Epicenter | 3.50 | Smile Happy (2.20) | 2nd |
| Rebel (OP) | Un Ojo | 75.40 | Newgrange (.80) | 6th |
| Gotham (AQU) | Morello | 1.00 | Morello | 1st |
| San Felipe (SA) | Forbidden Kingdom | 1.00 | Forbidden Kingdom | 1st |
| Fountain of Youth (GP) | Simplification | 2.50 | Simplification | 1st |
| 10-4-2-1 | ||||
| John Battaglia Memorial (TP)* | Tiz the Bomb | 1.60 | Tiz the Bomb | 1st |
| 50-20-10-5 | ||||
| Tampa Bay Derby (TAM) | Classic Causeway | .80 | Classic Causeway | 1st |
| 100-40-20-10 | ||||
| UAE Derby (MEY) | Crown Pride | 12.00 | Combustion (4.00) | 11th |
| Pinehurst (4.00) | 16th | |||
| Louisiana Derby (FG) | Epicenter | 1.00 | Epicenter | 1st |
| 50-20-10-5 | ||||
| Sunland Park Derby (SUN) | Slow Down Andy | 1.20 | Slow Down Andy | 1st |
| 100-40-20-10 | ||||
| Jeff Ruby Steaks (TP)* | Tiz the Bomb | 1.60 | Tiz the Bomb | 1st |
| Florida Derby (GP) | White Abarrio | 2.90 | Simplification (2.30) | 3rd |
| Arkansas Derby (OP) | Cyberknife | 5.80 | Secret Oath (f) (1.40) | 3rd |
| Wood Memorial (AQU) | Mo Donegal | 2.15 | Morello (1.90) | 6th |
| Blue Grass (KEE) | Zandon | 2.10 | Smile Happy (1.90) | 2nd |
| Santa Anita Derby (SA) | Taiba | 4.30 | Forbidden Kingdom (1.00) | 6th |
| 20-8-4-2 | ||||
| Lexington (KEE) | Tawny Port | 5.10 | In Due Time (1.90) | 3rd |
| 10-4-2-1 Europe | ||||
| Royal Lodge (NMK)** | Royal Patronage | 3.20 | Coroebus (2.12) | 2nd |
| Masekala (2.12) | 4th | |||
| Beresford (CUR)** | Luxembourg | .70 | Luxembourg | 1st |
| Jean-Luc Lagardère (LON)** | Angel Bleu | 5.50 | Ancient Rome (2.40) | 3rd |
| Vertem Futurity Trophy (DON)** | Luxembourg | .50 | Luxembourg | 1st |
| 20-8-4-2 Europe | ||||
| Road to Ky. Derby Cond. (KEM)* | Blue Trail | 1.25 | Blue Trail | 1st |
| Patton (DUN)* | Juncture (f) | .45 | Juncture | 1st |
| 30-12-6-3 Europe | ||||
| Cardinal Condition (CHD)* | Dark Moon Rising | 6.00 | Harrow (2.00) | 2nd |
| 10-4-2-1 Japan | ||||
| Cattleya (TOK) | Consigliere | .70 | Consigliere | 1st |
| 20-8-4-2 Japan | ||||
| Nisai Yushun (KAW) | Dry Stout | .80 | Dry Stout | 1st |
| 30-12-6-3 Japan | ||||
| Hyacinth (TOK) | Combustion | 2.60 | Blitz Fang (2.10) | 9th |
| 40-16-8-4 Japan | ||||
| Fukuryu (NAK) | Delicada (f) | 7.10 | Ho O Roulette (.30) | 5th |
| *Synthetic **Turf (f) Filly | ||||
| Favorites won 23 of 48 (47.9%) | ||||
| US/UAE 17 of 37 (45.9%) | ||||
| Europe/Japan 6 of 11 (54.5%) |