Track Trends: Favorites are performing well on synthetic

Winning favorites dropped to 38 percent last week from the previous week's 41 percent – the highest rate so far this year – but that decrease was not because bettors could not figure out synthetic racing.

Synthetic races saw a big uptick in action last week, with off-the-turf days at Gulfstream, the return to racing at Turfway Park and Golden Gate Fields’ big day. In all, there were 80 races on Tapeta for the week ended Feb. 13, with 40 percent winning favorites – a higher percentage than on dirt or turf for the week.

Gulfstream’s Tapeta proved most formful versus Golden Gate or Turfway Park, with 46 percent winning favorites on that surface in Florida. Perhaps bettors are finally getting a feel for how to play the Tapeta. 

Making up for a prior weather cancellation with a rescheduled Wednesday card, Sam Houston Race Park had the highest rate of winning favorites on the dirt at 61 percent. Turf racing in Texas was the place to find better prices, as favorites won 38 percent on the grass. Racing continues at Sam Houston this Wednesday at 5:00 PM EST, as does the Horse Racing Nation livestream. 

At Santa Anita, the percentage of winning favorites on the dirt still remained above the weekly average, but bettors cashed in on more value as opposed to last week’s chalky 73 percent win rate. In fact, favorites won more often on the turf there than the dirt.

Aqueduct has been a tricky track for bettors to adapt to overall this year, as precipitation continues to have an impact on the surface’s bias tendencies. Some days the track plays kinder to horses on the inside, other days that switches to favor horses closing in the middle of the track. Favorites won at 26 percent last week, one of the lowest percentages across the country.

A Pick 6 carryover of over $46,000 awaits horseplayers when the races resume on Friday in New York.

U.S. racetracks conducted more races in the week ended Feb. 13. 517 races went off versus 450 the week before - as better weather across the country invited hopes of spring and fewer weather-related cancellations.