Fastest 2015 Kentucky Derby Preps from TimeformUS

As the Kentucky Derby 2015 preps get more important each week and top horses earn points to make the gate, the big question becomes "how fast are these three year olds?" The answer might be "not very fast"! According to TimeformUS, this year's crop of Derby horses is shaping up to be the slowest since they began assigning speed figures!

 

 (Click the chart to see the full-size version!)

As you can see from the chart above, the green line represents 2015's Derby preps, and the trend has been on the downward slope. The last three Derby preps, the Fountain of Youth, Risen Star and Southwest Stakes, all could not crack a 100 speed figure, with the Southwest's 92 figure the slowest prep in the last five years.

The fastest year was 2011, with an average speed figure for all preps of 109. That year's top prep fig was the Rebel, where The Factor sizzled at Oaklawn for a 123 speed fig, the highest ever in a Derby prep. 2012 was close behind, with an average prep speed fig of 108. 2014's average speed fig was 104, with California Chrome's Santa Anita Derby topping all preps that year with a 113.

There is hope for this year's three-year-olds, however. In each year, the key Derby preps trend faster the closer to Derby we get. And the individual performances this year show a lot of potential for some dazzling speed, perhaps even beginning this weekend.

(Click the chart for the full-size version & Extra Pace figs!) 

The top TimeformUS speed fig of 2015 so far is Dortmund's 115 in the Robert B. Lewis, where he rallied in deep stretch to snatch the victory from pacesetter Firing Line in a dramatic edition of the race. Dortmund makes his next start on the Derby trail Saturday in the San Felipe. He will face the undefeated Ocho Ocho Ocho and Lord Nelson, who nipped Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, Texas Red, in the San Vicente last month. In Florida, Ocean Knight will take on Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby, and El Kabier, who ran a 101 in his Withers runner-up effort, will try to take back his crown in the Gotham at Aqueduct.

Kentucky Derby 2015 is still 58 days and 14 preps away - the most exciting races of the year have yet to be run, and new stars are still developing in the horse racing nebula!

 

- Speed figures & charts by @TimeformUS, story by Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)