Falls City fair odds: Breeders' Cup long shot has a chance

When I took 30-1 morning line Regaled in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, I knew I was picking a long shot who would actually be a long shot.

Taking 5-2 morning line favorite Regaled in the Falls City Stakes on Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs, I am hoping the morning line is off and Horse Racing Nation's projected off odds are correct.

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Horse Racing Nation, which does the morning lines for Colonial Downs, Laurel Park, Louisiana Downs and Santa Anita, projects Regaled more in the 5-1 range than 5-2. I'd love her at the former but will pass at the latter.

Regaled did not embarrass her backers when third in the Distaff at 30.7-1. Granted, that was a nonthreatening third, but she still beat either others and was clear of fourth. Trainer Whit Beckman and jockey Joe Ramos are not the type of connections to attract money, and maybe the outside post scares people away too. This is the filly or mare to beat, and I just hope the public disagrees with me.

Either Alpine Princess or Royal Spa could be the alternative if Regaled does in fact go favored. The former had an odd wide trip in a short field last out and could improve with a bit more pace to help lock in her spot from an inside draw. The latter went gate to wire last time and I'm worried bettors will overemphasize that. 

The presence of familiar names such as Raging Sea and Quietside could help inflate prices elsewhere. I see both of those entrants as certain underlays and will not use at all.