Falls City fair odds: Be thankful for an underlaid favorite

One of the best things to happen to bettors on the Grade 3 Falls City Stakes happened a month earlier when Tarifa won the Mother Goose (G2) at Aqueduct. That snapped the Godolphin homebred's three-race losing streak and no doubt will lead to her taking too much money Thursday at Churchill Downs.

Tarifa's best races came chasing or setting a soft pace, and that just does not seem likely against this group. Beyond not getting her ideal setup, though, the brass-tacks reality is she is not fast enough on Ragozin to warrant favortism here. In other words, her career best doesn't sniff our top pick.

Musical Mischief totes high weight here off her win in the Locust Grove last out, and that is the biggest negative. Based on Brisnet pace ratings, she is faster earlier and later than Tarifa, and I already have referenced the Ragozin advantage. She is a strong win bet candidate at the expected prices.

I'm so bearish on Tarifa that exotic bets are very appealing as well because I think it's worth betting that the morning-line favorite finishes off the board.

Peignoir has looked good stretching out. She faces a class test here, but price looks right. Enclosure has come from off the pace in her last two, and this race could set up for her to pick up a minor slice given so many other fillies and mares are forward. 

Loved is no secret at 2-1 morning line, but she has a lifetime best that can win this. Ragozin has her improving slightly second off the layoff last time, and with 7 1/2 weeks into this she can move forward again to her best.

Again, Musical Mischief is who I am most excited about, but I'll sprinkle the likely third choice Loved in with Peignoir and/or Enclosure in the trifecta pool.