Fair odds: Use these long shots for Ellis Park fireworks
The first stakes of the Ellis Park 2025 meeting is likely to be similar to a lot of the races in Henderson, Ky., this summer, competitive with long shots impossible to dismiss.
The Dade Park Dash attracted nine entries with morning-line odds between 7-2 and 15-1 and my fair odds between 9-2 and 20-1. In other workds, this is a very competive nonet. Wagering strategy for competitive races usually come in one of two flavors. An overlaid favorite gets overlooked because there are so many legitimate possibilities, or a spread of long shots are overlaid because the logical contenders get overbet.
This renewal of the Dade Park Dash on Friday at Ellis is in the latter category, with morning-line favorite Chasing Liberty unlikely to come close to my 9-2 fair odds. Obviously he can win, about 18 percent of the time if my fair odds are accurate. But I don't think we're getting my price thanks to the allure of the cutback on the return to turf.
Coming In Hot is the longest price on the morning line but not my least likely winner, so that gives some thought of this one being worth an upset look. The lone turf try was solid, and there's no reason to think he cannot improve returning to grass after a washed-off race that signaled he has maintained his form.
Hit That Review has to improve, but I'm intrigued about trainer Brendan Walsh going to Tyler Gaffalione here, the superstar jockey who has been off for a little more than three months with injury. When Walsh changes jockeys to Gaffalione in a stakes, the pair are 9-for-52 with a +14 percent return on investment.
Of the more logical horses based on the morning line, I like Kales Angel to show speed from the rail on the return to turf and Bridle a Butterfly as a closer threat with all the speed to his inside. I will key at least one of Hit that Review and Coming In Hot to hit the trifecta with Kales Angel and Bridle a Butterfly to be one of the others. I will press combos that include multiples from each bucket, Chinese menu-style.