Pegasus 2023 fair odds: Potential plays are identified

The Grade 1, $3 million Pegasus World Cup is shaping up not only as a lucrative opportunity for horsemen but also for horseplayers, thanks to the likelihood of the obvious favorites being overbet.

Grade 1 winners Cyberknife and Proxy are certainly the headliners of the 1 1/8-mile race on Jan. 28 at Gulfstream Park, but those headlines attract money, and it likely will be too much money for me to consider betting on a chalky outcome.

Cyberknife was second to Cody's Wish in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and possesses the best figures into this, but not so much the best that he is worth betting at less than 7-2 given the current field.

Proxy was impressive when winning the Clark Stakes (G1) to close out his 2022, but I am not sold on that performance being good enough to get the job done here.

Based on my fair odds for the race (given its current makeup), I expect Skippylongstocking to be the value in this race. My 2022 Preakness pick avenged that opinion to key my biggest score of last year when third behind the Pletcher-trained Mo Donegal and Nest in the Belmont Stakes and went on to win the West Virginia Derby (G3) as well as the local prep for this, the Harlan's Holiday Stakes (G3).

A full gate could provide additional opportunities as well with money getting spread across 12 entrants. This chart shows my full fair-odds analysis.