Fair odds: Weekend’s best bet is the Canadian International

Two horses in the Grade 1, US$537,076 Canadian International Stakes on Saturday at Woodbine both have won stakes overseas and at Woodbine. One of those horses is even money on the morning line, and the other is 4-1. I know which one I want to bet.

Haunted Dream shipped to Canada on just four weeks rest to win the Singspiel Stakes (G3) four weeks ago at Woodbine with a seven-wide blitz to overtake five other rivals at 7-5. Leading local jockey Rafael Hernandez was aboard for the local bow and sticks here. Since Woodbine closed its outer turf course after the King’s Plate and only used only its inner course, Hernandez is winning at an other-worldly 31% clip with a plus 40% Horse Racing Nation Impact score. HRN Impact measures expected wins based on percentage of the win pool against actual wins.

I don’t see any reason that Haunted Dream can’t get a similar trip against these, benefitting from an extra furlong and ground-saving inside post at this three-turn trip.

Obviously Nations Pride is dangerous, but he will be without William Buick for this. I also think this year’s Sword Dancer (G1) was not much, and he coughed up the lead to his stablemate pretty easily. He will be underlaid, and the post and jockey don’t give me any additional confidence.

The Canadian International is part of a $5 all-turf, all-stakes Pick 3 that begins with the Nearctic Stakes (G2), continues with the Dance Smartly (G2) and concludes with the Canadian International. I will single Haunted Dream on my main ticket.

Horse Racing Nation coverage of the Woodbine Thoroughbred meet is made possible in part through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment Group.