Fair odds: Untested hopefuls offer Derby Future Wager value

Not much has changed since the Grade 3 Lecomte weekend in terms of who I am excited to bet in pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, primarily because the running lines of those I was interested in betting haven't changed.

The only difference is workouts. We're at the point of the Kentucky Derby trail that a missed workout is a major negative, particularly for horses who have not started this year. Iron Honor was a horse I was excited to bet last time, but I held off because I thought he'd be around the same price this time with the benefit of more works. It looks like that will be the case, and he is the horse I am most excited to bet in this pool.

I am eager to see what the public does with Six Speed, the U.A.E. 2000 Guineas winner with ownership interests from America. I loved what I saw from this Kentucky-bred Not This Time colt in each of his last two efforts, and although I don't love the UAE path to the Derby, the value on this horse is likely now rather than later.

Of course, proven stakes winners such as Golden Tempo, Nearly, Paladin and Renegade are deserving favorites,. But once a horse wins a stakes, there is no chance at value this far out. Speaking of Golden Tempo and Paladin, the winners of the Lecomte and Remsen Stakes (G2), respectively, face each other in the Risen Star (G2) on Saturday at Fair Grounds. This fair-odds line was made "as is," meaning their performances at the Fair Grounds would change my actual line for when the pool closes Sunday.

I'm treating this as a win-win situation. As noted in my Risen Star fair odds, I prefer Chip Honcho and Universe as wagering propositions to the favorites. But if the favorites do well, then that surely will help the future-wager prices on horses such as Iron Honor and Six Speed.