Fair odds: CCA Oaks offers value opportunity at Saratoga

Not very often does a horse win a Grade 1 race and return six weeks later to the same track and distance likely to offer value in the win pool. But that is the situation facing bettors in the Grade 1 Coaching Club America Oaks on Saturday at Saratoga.

La Cara, winner of the Acorn Stakes (G1) on Belmont Stakes eve, makes her first start since turning the tables on Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Good Cheer. The rubber match will have to wait, however, as instead of Good Cheer, team Godolphin and trainer Brad Cox entered last year's champion 2-year-old filly immersive.

I am not completely convinced that Immersive will be the favorite here. She is the 8-5 choice on the morning line with La Cara at 2-1. Maybe La Cara takes more money, maybe she does not. But either way I fully expect La Cara to be overlaid given there is no way she will approach my 6-5 fair odds. So this is a prime wagering opportunity.

La Cara looked fantastic in winning the Ashland Stakes (G1) and Acorn. The Kentucky Oaks was a disappointment, but there was a lot more speed in there that day, and the Coaching Club American Oaks figures to offer a similar setup as her wins, not her losses.

Numbers wise, La Cara has the best figures of any filly in here. And although it's likely that Immersive will improve off her 3-year-old debut, she will likely have to improve to a lifetime best, which is not as simple a task.

The wildcard in here is Take Charge Milady, who upset Immersive last out and chased home La Cara when second to that one in the Ashland. If things don't go smoothly for La Cara up front, then Take Charge Milady is the better bet tp get the job done rather than backing the other short price, Immersive.

I expect that La Cara will be my first significant win bet of the Saratoga meeting.