Fair odds: This Ohio-bred stakes is teeming with value

Mahoning Valley: It's not just for Mondays and Tuesdays!

The Northeast Ohio oval plays host to racing Monday through Thursday each week, and this Thursday features the $75,000 Leona's Reward Stakes for Ohio-bred fillies and mares going one mile, 70 yards.

I'm dubious of the 8-1 morning line on Drills Wild Brat, but given that 13 were entered in this added-money affair, I expect we'll get a fair price in this nearly full field.

Drills Wild Brat will be making only her second career start around two turns, but her other start at that trip was a gate-to-wire win this summer at Thistledown. I expect similar tactics in the Leona's Reward with Luis Rivera aboard. He has won three of five aboard the Drill filly, including a prep for this two weeks ago.

Parlay is the 2-1 morning line favorite and has shown similar front-end tactics as our top selection, but her best pace has come on turf. Her pair of two-turn dirt efforts to date both resulted in 11-length defeats. I am not sure she can keep up with Drills Wild Brat early, and pressing will require a kick late I'm not sure she has. Certainly I'll bet against her having it at the expected price.

One potential long shot I'll keep an eye on is Kichi Kitsu, who I think can surprise here on the stretch out despite her trainer's dreadful stats in that situation, 1-for-72 when going sprint-sprint-route. And there is probably a reason she has not gone this distance in 27 career starts with 10 wins and nine other on-the-board finishes, but at this big a price I'll bet that things can set up for her to get a piece of the action.