Fair odds: Synthetic debut types intrigue in Kentucky Derby prep
If I loved Stop the Car at 5-1 in the Lecomte Stakes then I should give him another shot at 8-1 in the John Battaglia Memorial on Saturday at Turfway Park, right?
Yes.
Stop the Car chased a fast pace when wide in the Grade 3 Lecomte five weeks ago at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brendan Walsh has rerouted the Maximum Security colt's Triple Crown path through Kentucky, where he will make his first start on synthetic in the Battaglia. Maximum Security gets 17.9% winners on synthetic, and Stop the Car has a half-brother out of the Tiznow mare Pussyfoot who broke his maiden on synthetic. He is in post 9 again in the Battaglia, but without too much speed to his inside should be OK in this 1 1/16-mile contest.
Another intriguing prospect in his first start on synthetic is Attfield, a stakes winner on turf last year in New York making his 3-year-old debut here for trainer Tom Morley. No issue with Vekoma as a sire of synthetic runners, given his progeny's 18.5% strike rate on the surface. Distance concerns could materialize beyond this test, but Attfield already is a winner at this distance on turf.
Aces Honor has the most question marks, but at 15-1 morning line I'd start to get interested with any drift there. He got a good Ragozin figure when winning the Texas Turf Mile in his 3-year-old debut. Sire Code of Honor has had only three progeny try synthetic routes, and although none have won yet, Aces Honor does have a half-sibling and second dam with synthetic wins.
The top three choices undoubtedly will be Street Beast and Full Effort, the one-two finishers, respectively, in the Leonatus Stakes on Jan. 17 at Turfway, and Two Out Hero, winner of the Soaring Free Stakes over turf on King's Plate day last year at Woodbine. He made his career debut on synthetic and won by 12 lengths at 8-5. Unraced since finishing third, beaten by just a length, in the Summer Stakes (G1) on Sept. 13, Two Out Hero is too short for me at 7-2 from post 12 routing off this type of layoff.