Fair odds: Streaking filly is the play in Victory Ride

Dan Wilson's hit "Closing Time," the part where he says, "Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end," resonates as I consider that this week is both the first of nine weeks of racing at Saratoga and the last week of the Belmont at Aqueduct meeting.

As a handicapper, I am mostly interested in how these horses, and horsemen and women, do at Saratoga, even if this is not the Saratoga meeting. It is with that in mind that I give a long look to Indy Bay in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes on Thursday.

With a compact field of five for the first stakes of a blockbuster weekend that includes a pair of Grade 1 turf races for 3-year-olds, the Victory Ride goes as race 3 on the 11-race card. For a 6 1/2-furlong sprint for 3-year-old fillies, there is not a ton of speed in here, which could make Hollygrove attractive. She set a blistering pace against 10 others after a sluggish start from the rail last out and might fare better in a shorter field.

Still, Indy Bay is capable of tracking a spirited pace as well as overcoming less-than-ideal trips. It really seems like with this shorter field and a clear target, she is the filly to beat.

Echo Sound ran down Hollygrove last out, but I am worried she will be overbet given the 4-for-5 record. But if Indy Bay is grossly overbet then the opportunity likely lies with either Hollygrove or Echo Sound.