Fair odds: Stakes winners square off in Ky. Derby prep

The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park has seven names in the program, but this is a two-horse race between a pair of graded-stakes winners at seven furlongs looking to make their marks on the Kentucky Derby trail in a race worth 50 points to the winner.

Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Brant makes his 3-year-old debut against undefeated San Vicente Stakes (G2) winner So Happy. The former made his two-turn debut when third to eventual champion Ted Noffey in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and So Happy makes his two-turn debut here. I have it as 90% that one of these two horses win this race, with Brant the more likely of the two and the likeliest of the seven.

There are distance questions surrounding Brant, which is understandable considering Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert skipped a traditional Breeders' Cup prep to run him off a near two-month layoff after his Del Mar Futurity win. I'm more inclined to think that is a soundness concern, given his long layoff before debuting as a 3-year-old, with preparations to back the Gun Runner colt out of a Liam's Map mare in this spot at 4-5 or better. The workout pattern of five-, six-, six- and five furlongs into this adds to my confidence that he is ready.

So Happy is no slouch, though. His numbers are right there with Brant's, plus he has a recency edge. Being by Runhappy, So Happy's distance question is more germane to me than Brant's. But I will worry about that as we get out to 1 1/8 miles, not the 1 1/16 miles of this contest. If Brant is bet down too much, I would back So Happy as an alternative.

There is just not a lot to recommend taking a stab with any other horse in this spot. The other Baffert entry, Potente, was fine on debut when winning at 3-5, but this is a huge step up against his stablemate and So Happy. Secured Freedom could benefit from no-hopers Flashy Frtiz and Robusta being aggressive early, but I'm more inclined to play him as an upset horse splitting the chalk than beating both of them on top.