Fair odds: Ragtime is primed for a breakthrough in Dogwood

When we last saw Ragtime, Godolphin's homebred Union Rags filly was chasing Kilwin home in the Grade 1 Test Stakes. That rally came up a neck short, but it portends great things for her chances in the Dogwood Stakes (G3) on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Brisnet ultimate performances denote the Test at Saratoga as a slow pace late. Kilwin was able to give her rivals the slip in that Grade 1, but Kilwin is not in the Dogwood, and plenty of other pace is. That includes 9-5 morning-line favorite Echo Sound, the 3-2 Test favorite who pressed Kilwin early but faded to a well-beaten sixth.

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I hope the morning line is correct because I definitely see Ragtime, 2-1, as the more likely winner. Run style is a big part of that, as already discussed, but overall she just has been more impressive to me after winning her first two races by a combined eight lengths. Most impressive to me as a longtime observer of Brisnet figures is her triple-digit late-pace ratings in all three career starts.

Delightful Clare is another strong contender, but I have her slotted a tier below Ragtime because she, too, is forwardly placed. She might get overbet off that troubled trip last out where she still managed third in her stakes debut.

After that trio I'd be reaching with any of the others. Kay Cup is 8-1 on the morning line and 12-1 fair odds, so there's a chance if she drifts that she could be one to key given that the cutback from nine furlongs to seven could get her back to her best.

Ragtime is definitely the bullish choice, though, and she's a filly I'm willing to lean on.