Fair odds: Penn Mile pair likely will be overbet in Secretariat

The Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes on Saturday at Colonial Downs is a pivotal part of the wagering menu on Arlington Million day, as it kicks off the all-graded-stakes, all-turf Pick 3, is the third leg of an all-stakes Pick 5, and a part of a pair of Pick 4 wagers, an all-stakes beginning with the preceding race and a late Pick 4 starting with the Secretariat.

Deciding how to play the race is thus pivotal, especially considering the public is likely to gravitate toward the Penn Mile (G3) exacta of Dream On and Cairo Caper but none in here are hopeless.

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Expecting Dream On and Cairo Caper to take money means I will look elsewhere. I do like the longest shot in the Beverly D Stakes (G2), which is the race after the Secretariat and a part of all the bets mentioned above. Leaning on her makes using Dream On and Cairo Caper usable, even in concert with Million favorite Integration. But using more logical contenders in the Beverly D means I will not want the short prices in the Secretariat.

Thankfully, there are options, and the two alternatives to the favorites I'm most excited about both figure to have an early presence in an otherwise paceless race. Maui Strong was a late addition by trainer Dale Romans and figures to be forward at this course and distance. Antisocial has been agressive in his two turf tries and might be worth a long-shot flyer with jockey Luis Saez getting aboard.

Giocoso got a big number chasing home a classy bunch in the American Turf. I worry about that style in this spot, but leading rider Ben Curtis helps. In addition to the Penn Mile pair, End of Romance is the other in here I expect to be underlaid. He has fantastic connections, but the number power just isn't there to take a shortish price with no aggression early.