Fair odds: Ohio Derby brings long-shot play of the year

It may very well be that Desert Gate is a different horse in his last two wins – by a combined 16 lengths – than he was in his previous three losses, but I see it as more of an indicator of class than form.

In neither the Hot Springs Stakes nor the Texas Derby did Desert Gate face the level of competition lining up in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby on Saturday at Thistledown, but he is still the most likely winner of the 1 1-8-mile race. Unfortunately for his biggest fans, he almost certainly is an underlay as well.

The nine furlongs will be uncharted territory, yes, and that becomes an especially pointed question with other speed signed on for this race in the form Chip Honcho and possibly Robusta and Jupiter.

Enter Zihnal, who disappointed in his first two career starts before breaking his maiden at 3-5 less than two weeks ago at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This is a quick turnaround, but being by Quality Road out of a Ghostzapper mare, the stretchout to nine furlongs should suit this Jonathan Thomas trainee. He pressed a slow pace at Horseshoe before taking command. 

Chip Honcho and Ocelli both will take money here off their Triple Crown race participation. I greatly prefer the former, who was fine in the Preakness and competed against Golden Tempo all winter at Fair Grounds after winning the Gun Runner Stakes to close out his 2-year-old season. Ocelli likely will benefit from a spirited pace, but a win seems out of reach and not worth the price.

My plan is to bet Zihnal to win and key him with Desert Gate and Chip Honcho in the vertical gimmicks. 

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