Fair odds: No 'lock,' but value is likely in Virginia Derby

Lockstocknpharoah has had the type of start to his racing career that fuels Kentucky Derby dreams. He's undefeated in two starts by a combined 10 1/4 lengths with a pedigree that includes 2015 Triple Crown champion American Pharoah as his sire and 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist as his broodmare sire.

Trainer Tommy Drury will attempt to clear two new hurdles in the Virginia Derby on Saturday at Colonial Downs: earn Kentucky Derby points and do so while racing on dirt for the first time.

Considering the pedigree, dirt is unlikely to be the reason Lockstocknpharoah loses. And besides, he recorded 10 workouts at Churchill Downs before shipping to Turfway for the final work before his career debut. In his final workout at Churchill, he breezed four furlongs in 47.8 seconds.

Drury has started four horses in his career who made their stakes and dirt debut in the same race, with Departing winning the 2016 Schaefer Memorial at Horseshoe Indiana. So there is some small precedent for the trainer to make this move. 

Buetane is the horse he will have to beat, and I acknowledge the Bob Baffert trainee is the most likely winner. But I also acknowledge that Baffert giving the mount to Flavien Prat is sure to make Buetane an underlay against a solid group. The one-turn nature of this 1 1/8-mile race should benefit him, but I thought he was flat in the two-turn, 1 1/16-mile Southwest (G3) last month. The horses in front of him in his last two races, So Happy, Soldier N Diplomat and Silent Tactic, would would hardly be cinches in this spot. On the other hand, if he only loses to "S" horses, then he's a cinch in here.

Both Incredibolt and Confessional are coming off losses worse than Buetane's Southwest effort. Either could offer a situation where the effort was so bad it is easier to draw a line through it with no excuse other than "not his day."

The board is likely to tell the story of whether to expect a rebound. This is a catch-22 because completely dead on the board means not even worth a bet. Too much money likely signals ready to rebound, but then that's underlay territory. Either is usable in scenarios that toss Buetane and key on Lockstocknpharoah.