Fair odds: Looking to beat Turf Mile favorite at Ellis Park
Mercante has had the type of four-race run any small racing outfit such as trainer Brian Knippenberg's dreams about, winning three of four races, including a pair of Grade 3s, and finishing second in the Old Forrester Turf Classic (G1).
It is also the type of run that makes a horse 2-1 in a 12-horse field, which is the case for Mercante when he faces 11 others in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Mile on Saturday at Ellis Park.
Mercante's story is great but his price is not, so as much as the race fan in me would not mind seeing him do well, the bettor in me is forced to root against.
Komorebino Omoide is easier to bet than to say. He stretched out to 1 1/8 miles last out and tried turf for just the second time and ran a good second in the Texas Turf Classic Stakes at Lone Star Park. I like trainer Robertino Diodoro sticking with turf off that effort but cutting back to a mile for this race. Komorebino Omoide has plenty of races on dirt that would be fast enough to win these, so any improvement in a second-time turf route in the current form cycle makes him a major player.
Green Light has been favored in each of his last six starts, including odds-on thrice, which speaks to confidence surrounding this Hard Spun colt. Now he returns to the stakes ranks and figures to be a much bigger price. But I loved his last off the layoff, and there's no reason to think he won't move forward second-time out as a 4-year-old with Tyler Gaffalione taking the mount.
The top two choices on Joe Kristufek's morning line drew inside posts, with Mercante just to the outside of Taking Candy. Neither is impossible, but I see both as certain underlays, especially Taking Candy who would need a lifetime best to ensure victory against what half this field is capable of. I'm completely tossing him from consideration.
Wagering-wise, I'll be looking to betting Komorebino Omoide to win and fooling around in exotics with Green Light and the three outside horses. Of those five horses, if any end up higher than 15-1 then that becomes usable with Mercante.