Fair odds: Long-shot play of the weekend is at Churchill Downs

I'm dubious that we'll actually get the 20-1 price the morning line suggests on Quatrocento in the Grade 3 River City on Saturday at Churchill Downs, but I am confident that he will be overlaid.

Quatrocento was just 15-1 against 10 others in the Turf Mile Stakes (G1) last month at Keeneland, finishing sixth. That happened to be his stakes debut off a pair of gate-to-wire wins at Kentucky Downs. That course played kindly to speed this year, but based on Brisnet pace ratings, jockey Julian Leparoux, my favorite rider, will have options in terms of just went to hit the gas on this son of War Front.

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That is important because there is a decent amount of early pace in this race, with most of it drawn in the inside half of the 13-horse field. I don't think Quatrocento can win a speed duel with the likes of Epic Ride or Wolfie's Dynaghost, but he can sit and kick to get first run on others in this 1 1/8-mile contest.

I have Chasing the Crown as the most likely winner, given his overall talent and that he will be closing in a race replete with pace. He made a solid return from a seven-month layoff against the track profile at Kentucky Downs, and improvement is likely. My wagering strategy will center around playing Quatrocentro to win and keying with Chasing the Crown.

Lagynos is worth watching the toteboard. If Quatrocento gets first run on the leaders and Chasing the Crown gets last run, then Lagynos will probably be a mid-pack closer. He provides a sort of backup option to use with Quatrocento, but the price is too short to use with Chasing the Crown.

Encino and Corruption are both 5-1 on Mike Battaglia's morning line and very likely underlays at those prices. Corruption especially just seemed to benefit from his forward style last out at Kentucky Downs. He does have a win at the course and distance with jockey Jose Ortiz aboard, but I don't like the race shape for him at all. I think Encino is using this as a prep for the synthetic championships next month at Turfway Park.