Fair odds: Local option offers most value in Muniz

Tis the season for referencing Steve Asmussen never having won a Kentucky Derby, but there is another race the winningest trainer in North America has never won: The Grade 2 Muniz Memorial presented by Horse Racing Nation.

The Hall of Fame conditioner has tried seven times to win the Fair Grounds' premiere turf race, but he has never had a chance like this year with Lagynos, winner of the Fair Grounds Stakes presented by Horse Racing Nation (G3).

None of Asmussen's seven Muniz starters have been single-digit odds, but Lagynos figures to be no worse than second choice on Saturday. Considering I think he's the most likely winner, the Muniz offers a value opportunity.

Lagynos has been in great form in both starts this year at Fair Grounds, unable to hold off Kapuna in his 5-year-old debut before easily turning that one away last out in the Fair Grounds Stakes. Both races earned Ragozin figures that would be good enough to win this, but what really adds to the allure is that the progression for Asmussen portends a move forward in this third race off the layoff.

Program Trading is the 9-5 morning-line favorite off his fifth-place finish to Test Score in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), beaten just 1 1/2 lengths as the 13-10 favorite. Program Trading has a reliable pattern of improving off those kinds of efforts, but price-wise it is a no brainer to take the longer of the two prices considering the chalk has to improve just to get to the level Lagynos has been.

Lagynos is a clear single for me in the multi-race wagers, and the Muniz is both the middle leg of an all-stakes Pick 5 and first leg of the late Pick 5. But there is an opportunity to use Program Trading vertically, perhaps with Chasing the Crown, a long shot who can make his presence known in the gimmicks. He has a win on the Fair Grounds turf, and I liked him a little bit in the Pegasus against Program Trading at 42-1. He's playable with the favorites to spice up the trifecta.