Fair odds: King's Plate winner has value in 1st turf tilt

The Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs is a very competitive renewal of the 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-olds.

So much so, in fact, that I am a bit trepidatious being too bullish on my selection because I could see him being anywhere from favored to sixth choice in the field of 11, before scratches.

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I am speaking of King's Plate winner Mansetti, who won the Canadian classic on the synthetic Tapeta surface with a nearly gate-to-wire effort going 1 1/4 miles. He was valiant in defeat going 1 3/16 miles in the Prince of Wales Stakes on dirt at Fort Erie. With no Canadian Triple Crown to go after, though, trainer Kevin Attard eschewed the Breeders Stakes at 1 1/2 on turf at Woodbine and targeted this shorter, and graded, stakes.

I missed Mansetti at 18.35-1 in the King's Plate, so I'm risking some wedding-funeral imbalance here, but I really like his forward style while cutting back in distance for his turf debut. Pietro Moran, a leading candidate for the Eclipse Award for outstanding apprentice jockey, makes the ship with the team and is 2-for-4 with two other seconds in two-turn races with the Ulwelling family's Collected colt.

As an interesting aside, Jim Rome's Jungle Racing bred Mansetti in Onatrio out of his Sky Mesa mare Gidget Girl, herself out of one of Rome's more accomplished race mares Surfer Girl.

Anyway, Mansetti is fair value at his morning-line price of 6-1.

Sometimes all the logical horses take a little each, and that makes some long shot a price that's worth taking a flyer on. California Burrito, another making his turf debut here, fits that mold. Morning line is 20-1 and fair odds is 25-1, so there is a chance this horse is playable. That kind of long-shot price for a trainer, Tommy Drury, who always has his horses ready, is playable in all exotics.

Certainly if California Burrito runs well with Mansetti we'll want to have crushed the race. But even if it's with Troubleshooting or Giocoso, two horses I see as win contenders but potentially overbet, then there could be some overlaid payouts.