Fair odds: Kentucky transplant is getting good at right time

It is not often that the lone graded stakes on a card is the appetizer to what follows, but so it goes Saturday at Churchill Downs on Saturday when the Grade 3 Chilukki precedes Claiming Crown action.

The one-turn mile race for fillies and mares attracted a fairly competitive field of seven distaffers, with only two of the seven being real outsiders. What it did not attract is a lot of speed, which is a big part of the reason I'm bullish on One Magic Philly.

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Making her first start for trainer Brendan Walsh last out at Keeneland, the formerly California-based Good Magic filly pressed a solid pace and got a one-length win over a next-out winner. A similar trip seems likely here, with Shred the Gnar making her stakes debut off consecutive gate-to-wire efforts. Shred the Gnar is making her first start in more than six months, however, so the recency edge makes One Magic Philly the better bet.

Godolphin homebred Ragtime is a resolute closer, but it would take the aforementioned pair to really throw down for one of them not to see out this mile voyage. In other words, I am concerned that Ragtime will have too much to do late. And the same goes for Impel.

I expect this race to get bet pretty evenly, so there should be some value in playing narrow, which I will do with One Magic Philly.