Fair odds: Keeneland offers challenging turf Pick 3 puzzle
Friday's opening-day card at Keeneland features an all-graded-stakes Pick 3 as races 7-9, but that is not the only Pick 3 that demands our attention on the 10-race card.
The $3 all-turf Pick 3, a bet Keeneland originated for the 2021 fall meeting, returns. And with fields of 16, 14 and 14 before scratches, this first opportunity this October figures to be a lucrative one.
The Friday turf Pick 3 is on races 6, 8 and 10, with that middle leg being the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes for 2-year-old fillies. The Jessamine also is the middle leg of the aforementioned all-graded-stakes Pick 3 , which begins with the Phoenix (G2) and ends with the Alcibiades (G1). The Jessamine-Alcibiades one-two punch is a dual-surface double for 2-year-old fillies.
Bettors trying to navigate these sequences will have to decide whether to single Time To Dream in the Jessamine. From two starts, both at two turns on the turf, she has two wins by a combined 7 1/4 lengths, including a five-length blitz in the P.G. Johnson Stakes last out over six overmatched foes at 3-5.
A carbon copy of that race likely is enough to land Time To Dream in the winner's circle, but it is worth noting that the far outside post going two turns at Keeneland is not great, including a -71 percent ROI from post 12 across 141 races.
From a setup perspective I like two inside horses best, Carolyncaroline as a speed threat and Mackinac with a similar trip to Time to Dream but from a better post. The former figures to be a much better price and offers versatility from a wagering standpoint because she can be keyed with Time To Dream at potentially double-digit odds. Her biggest negative is that jockey Julian Leparoux is 1-for-86 in two-turn turf races the last four years at Keeneland, including 0-for-19 in stakes.
We'd be remiss if we did not mention the also-eligible horses in here. Neither is part of this 100-point fair-odds line, but either could be a factor if drawn in despite the rough post, especially Dyna. I would be inclined to use either or both in any multi-race wagers that do not start with this race.
Horse Racing Nation coverage of the Keeeneland fall meeting is provided in partnership with the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.