Fair odds: Look to Japan for a Breeders' Cup Mile play

Readers of this space already know that Japan-based Forever Young to win the Breeders' Cup Classic is my best bet of the Breeders' Cup.

What they don't know is that I like the all-Japan double in the Classic-Breeders' Cup Mile sequence Saturday at Del Mar. 

Argine has yet to break through at the Grade 1 level, finishing fourth beaten a half-length in the Victoria Mile two races back. That was a decent effort, though, and he returned to win a Grade 3 before getting a three-month freshening for this international tilt.

What intrigues me most is that trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida attained the services of Frankie Dettori, a 15-time winner of Breeders' Cup races with a third of those wins coming in the Turf. The one minor knock on that record is that none of those Turf wins came in Southern California, but he has won other Breeders' Cup races on turf here, and four of the five Turf wins were in races with three turns. 

Adding to the storyline is that Dettori said on Wednesday that the Mile would be his last mount in America before a farewell tour in South America preceding retirement. Like Rosie Napravnik, who retired after winning the 2014 Breeders' Cup Distaff aboard Untapable, Dettori can go out on top here, and we're getting the right price for it to happen.

Part of the price equation is that there is a clear favorite here in Notable Speech, who totally overmatched eight rivals in the Woodbine Mile (G1). He was 2-5 that day, so it's hard to make much of the win from a class perspective especially considering Gas Me Up was 3 1/2 lengths back in third and is 30-1 morning line here.

Notable Speech is the most likely winner, but I'd rather take a shot with Argine.