Fair odds: Iowa invader is the value in Zia Park Derby

Stop me if you've heard this one before: An Iowa-bred ships to the land of enchantment for the richest race in New Mexico.

OK, you can stop me. It's happened once before with Wildatlanticstorm in 2023. He finished fourth in the Zia Park Derby that year. I expect Amorosa to improve upon that in this year's renewal on Tuesday at Zia Park.

Amorosa had a four-race win streak snapped when second to Jack's Time in the Iowa Breeders' Derby eight weeks ago at Prairie Meadows. All the winner did out of that race is ship to Churchill Downs in Kentucky and win a $125,000 allowance race over Kalahari Dreams. That was also Amorosa's lone loss from three tries at this 1 1/16-mile distance, and the Sky Mesa colt is 4-for-5 around two turns.

Ideally drawn for his stalk-and-pounce tactics, Amorosa is dangerous here and has value at his morning-line price.

The enigma of the race for me is McKinzie Street, who was once 9-5 as a 2-year-old against eventual champion Citizen Bull in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes. He has found new life in New Mexico with two consecutive victories under allowance conditions for new trainer Justin Evans to snap a six-race losing streak. 

This will be just his second attempt at two turns in what will be his 10th career start, but I have no reason to think this middle distance will be a problem for a McKinzie colt out of a Tale of the Cat mare. I was trepidatious of being too bullish on his chances because I think we'll get much less than the 8-1 morning line, but he is one to watch if the price is right.

Of the short(ish) prices on the morning line, I am most against Remember Big Jim, whose 5-1 is way too short for me given his only wins came at 4-5 and 1-5, which makes me dubious of his ability to handle this class hike.

The Zia Park Derby caps a 10-race card, and I'd like my spot if I'm live to only Amorosa and McKinzie Street, whose 4-1 and 8-1 morning lines, respectively, make them playable against Brotha Keny and Mister Omaha. Those two certainly factor here but are underlaid at their morning-line prices, though both are far more likely than the aforementioned Remember Big Jim.