Fair odds: Find value on King's Plate winners at Woodbine

Paramount Prince's only loss at 1 1/8 miles came in the Grade 2 Autumn Stakes last year when he set the fastest pace of his career before fading to last of eight.

Now the 2023 King's Plate winner is back to try again in this year's Grade 3 edition against 12 rivals with 2024 Plate-winning jockey Pietro Moran aboard. This is significant because Moran won this year's Plate aboard Mansetti in near gate-to-wire fashion, and overall he wins on 34% of the horses he rides who lead at the first call.

That is nothing against former rider Patrick Husbands, of course, who won the Plate aboard Paramount Prince in front-running fashion from post 13. But Husbands is riding the other Mark Casse trainee Swift Delivery here.

I prefer Paramount Prince at the price, given he is a known wire threat at these longer distances. At 8-1 morning line versus my 4-1 fair odds, he is a significant value play here, both as a win bet at the projected odds and as an exotics key in a 13-horse field.

Morning-line favorite Funtastic Again is the most likely winner, but his 5-2 morning-line price would be my absolute floor for playing this one against a competitive group. Off since winning the Dominion Day (G3) at this track and distance 4 1/2 months ago, this spot makes sense for a return as well as a prep for the synthetic championships next month at Turfway Park.

Both Swift Delivery and Dresden Row fit this field but have the looks of bigger underlays than the favorite Funtastic Again. If stretching beyond Paramount Prince and Funtastic Again, I'd look to take a shot with Loose Wire, who is perfect in two starts at this track and distance. This is his first start at nine furlongs this year, and although I'm not sure what to think of trainer Kevin Attard legging up Aurelien Lemaitre in this spot, that uncertainty can only help the price.