Fair odds: Embrace 1 of favorites in 1st Kentucky Oaks prep

The Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes kicks off the road to the Kentucky Oaks, and it has a decided mid-Atlantic flavor among its top choices.

Horse Racing Nation projects either Dazzling Dame or Embrace the Moment as the favorite for the one-turn, one-mile race for 2-year-old fillies Saturday at Churchill Downs. For the sake of betting, I hope one takes a lot more money than the other because I will gladly gamble on the one who is not favored.

All that said, I do prefer Embrace the Moment off her maiden win less than two weeks ago at Delaware Park. The secret was out, as she won at just 2-5 odds. But it was a professional effort, and certainly shipping to Churchill Downs for a race 12 days later, although challenging, speaks to her connections' bullishness. 

Dazzling Dame has been sharp in both her starts, winning her career debut against Maryland-breds in June at Laurel then capturing the Sorority Stakes in August at Monmouth Park. The latter was a two-turn mile, but there's no reason to think the one-turn variety will be a challenge given her strong debut at 5 1/2 furlongs.

Again, I slightly prefer Embrace the Moment, but if she is the one to take a lot of money then I will pivot to Dazzling Dame.

Ken McPeek trains both fillies on my next tier of contenders, Taken by the Wind and Our Two Girls. Both had double-digit odds when winning their career debuts. If either gets ignored in the betting, then the longer price might be worth keying with our top two. 

Coverage of Churchill Downs stakes is done in partnership with the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.