Fair odds: Most likely winner offers value in Colonial stakes

The first stakes of the Colonial Downs meeting that began Wednesday and runs through mid-September are Saturday, and the stakes races for Maryland or Virginia-bred or -sired horses are both fairly competitive. The better wagering opportunity coming in the Star de Naskra Stakes.

Funny enough, although Colonial is most known for its high-quality turf racing, the first two added-money events are on the main track, both going seven furlongs.

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5-2 morning-line favorite Barbadian Runner is our target here, as the most likely winner could offer value cutting back in distance while returning to restricted company. There is certainly no shame in sandwiching a Jersey Derby win between a couple of runs behind Reagan's Wit and Admiral Dennis. My biggest concern going into this week was whether the Colonial main track played forward, but through two days of racing that has not been the case.

Of the others, Bold Diversion is the most interesting at 10-1 on the morning line. He has improved since joining trainer Joanne Shankle's barn, and although the seven furlongs may be a touch beyond his scope, the price is right to see whether his improvement is good enough for restricted stakes company. 

My wagering strategy would be to bet on Barbadian Runner to win at his morning line or better, and he is a horse I don't mind to single in multi-race wagers because, although he is favored, he is not the type of price where he is the horse everyone is on.

Coverage of the Colonial Downs meet at Horse Racing Nation is made possible in part through a sponsorship by Colonial Downs.