Fair odds: Distance helps British Isles's dirt chances in Big 'Cap

Normally, horses who are winless on both dirt and in stakes races do not make the best prospects to win a Grade 1 race going 1 1/4 miles on dirt, but I have a feeling British Isles is due.

After finishing fifth, beaten 9 1/2 lengths by Skippylongstocking at odds of 83.8-1 in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) for trainer David Fawkes, British Isles returns to the barn of Richard Baltas to try the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) on Saturday at Santa Anita.

The extra furlong from the Pegasus should help British Isles, a Justify gelding out of the Pure Prize mare Purely Hot. He's a half-brother two Eight Rings, a Grade 1 winner of a two-turn race as a 2-year-old. All three of British Isles' wins have come on turf, but at 1 1/8 miles twice and at 1 1/2 miles as well. If he can stay the 10 furlongs on dirt, his pressing style could allow him to get a jump on favored Just a Touch, who has a habit of hanging in the stretch.

That said, Just a Touch is the understandable favorite here. His par performance is slightly better than what most of this field is capable of, and his best performances win this race easily. Like our top pick, he is by Justify, and even though he finished last in the Kentucky Derby, he has two impressive wins at 1 1/8 miles.

Westwood is a sentimental pick, having been trained by the late John Shirreffs and now running for Peter Eurton. His San Pasqual (G2) win was impressive, but I worry about him being a bit forward against this group going 10 furlongs. Midnight Mammoth, Getaway Car and Vodka Vodka all are capable of aggression, which could leave British Isles in the perfect spot.