Fair odds: Chad Brown filly could come through in QEII

Six days after Gin Gin scored a gate-to-wire upset in the Spinster Stakes, could Opulent Restraint do the same in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup?

That is my primary question surrounding the Grade 1 race for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on turf Saturday at Keeneland.

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Opulent Restraint was third last out to Laurelin in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2) after pressing the pace that day and getting outkicked late. She was the 7-5 favorite then but is the 4-1 third choice on Nick Tammaro's morning line, and Laurelin is the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

I like Opulent Restraint's setup better, and I think we'll get the right price considering her loss two back was to 3-1 morning-line second-choice Fionn. She has won three straight, including the Dueling Grounds Oaks (G3) last out, and six of her last seven.

Opulent Restraint looked like a future star when winning two of three last year at short odds but is 0-for-4 this year. None of those races were bad, however, and she has kept good company lines with Grade 1 winner Nitrogen among them in addition to the foes in this heat. Trainer Chad Brown is a maestro when it comes to bringing along horses through a season to pop for the big race, and the price is right to bet on that happening in the QE2.

From a long-shot perspective, Will Then at 20-1 on the morning line could go off overlaid and is worth a look at that price. Like Opulent Restraint, she is winless lately but has run in-form races. If Frankie Dettori is able to produce her late run in the clear, then she can make noise at a big price.

The good thing about liking a horse such as Will Then is you can key her with the logicals and still have overlaid payouts. In other words, I don't want to get beat if Will Then is second to Fionn or Laurelin.