Fair odds: Beating vulnerable chalk is key to Turfway Pick 5s
Turfway Park is known for competitive racing, so when a horse sticks out as the most likely winner on the card the impulse is to take the free square and look for prices elsewhere.
In the words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friends."
Of the 128 horses entered into nine races on the opening-day card Wednesday in Florence, Ky., Penalty Box in race 5 is the shortest morning-line price by far, sporting a 7-5 projection on Mike Battaglia's line. No other horse is lower than 5-2 on the morning line.
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Race 5 is a 1 1/4-mile maiden special weight race for 3-year-olds and up. Only two of the 11 entered have gone this far. Peak Performer and Abbi Fede both ran in a 1 5/16-mile turf race on Sept. 7 at Kentucky Downs, finishing fourth and fifth, respectively, both beaten about seven lengths. None of the entered have been beyond a mile on synthetic.
Penalty Box has a pair of two-turn mile races on the Del Mar main track, and the Violence gelding out of a Street Boss mare will be making his first start beyond a mile and on synthetic. In synthetic route races, Violence progeny win 12.9% of the time with a -8.5% Horse Racing Nation Impact. HRNi measures expected wins based on betting against actual wins.
Trainer Michael McCarthy also managed to lure Irad Ortiz Jr. to the saddle. The Eclipse Award-winning jockey has four mounts on the opening-day card, including another for McCarthy and a pair for Wesley Ward. These connections will attract money as will the fact this one was even money in each of his last two starts against similar if not better.
Here's the rub, though. Penalty Box is not improving, as shown in his Ragozin Sheet. Sure, he is not really regressing either, but I am comfortable gambling against this one taking a step forward here.
Yes, others will have to improve if Penalty Box gets back to those 12s he ran at Del Mar, but I'm OK gambling on that too.
Dawn Dragon is my best bet. Curlin has good numbers with these types of runners, though he is overbet based on HRNi. Still, he won't be overbet here, and there is more upside on him stretching out second-off the layoff than any other horse in the race, especially when trainer Riley Mott is 23% second-off with a positive ROI and is 28% going turf to synthetic.
After Dawn Dragon, I'd be interested in any of Rapoport, Peak Performer, Sound Cause, Abbi Fede, Inspired Kiss or Money Man if the prices are large enough.
Looking at the first two weeks of the meeting last year, the route races played mostly fair with a small proclivity to outside closers and inside speed going 0-for-117. That's another tick against Penalty Box as he figures to be somewhat forward here at 10 furlongs.
Join Brian Arrigoni and me on Wednesday on the Horse Racing Nation livestream as we handicap not only this race but also the previous four and hopefully hit the first Pick 5 of the meeting!