San Felipe fair odds: Former Baffert colts don't offer value

Saturday's Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita is one of the deepest Kentucky Derby prep races in Southern California in years and should lead to wagering opportunities as bettors tackle barn and medication changes in the 11-horse field.

The 50-points-to-the-winner prep race is part of the $1 minimum, 15 percent takeout Coast to Coast Pick 5, which includes the Fountain of Youth and other stakes from Gulfstream Park. The 12-race card Saturday at the Great Race Place also features a mandatory payout on the 20-cent Pick 6, but that is on the last six races and does not include the San Felipe.

Anyway, back to handicapping the race, which for me came down to whether you trust the last-out figures more than the body of work.

In the former's corner, there is Practical Move and Skinner, both of whom had breakout performances in their last starts. In the latter category is National Treasure and Hejazi, who have been consistently faster throughout their career but not necessarily faster than the other two most recently.

There are other wrinkles.

Skinner and Hejazi both broke their maidens last out when adding Lasix, which they'll both be off for the San Felipe. But their trainers saw fit to run both as 2-year-olds in stakes as maidens sans Lasix, so that gives me confidence here.

National Treasure and Hejazi also have in common that they were trained by Bob Baffert but now are in the barn of Tim Yakteen, who has had the aforementioned Practical Move his entire career. All three of these Yakteen-trained entrants have the ability to be on or near the pace, so it will be interesting to see where each is throughout the race.

That leads me back to Skinner, who does his running from mid-pack at best and could end up needing a sustained closing run given all the speed here. Of the 29 winners of one-mile dirt races this meeting at Santa Anita, Skinner is one of only three horses to win from more than four lengths off the pace.

I expect Skinner to be the value of this race, and thus he is my top pick. If the wagering public goes nuts on Hejazi, then National Treasure could creep into playable territory. Check out the video below, where Churchill Downs senior analyst Scott Shapiro and I discuss the race as well as the Big 'Cap in more detail.