Canterbury Derby fair odds: Golden Bandit is dangerous

The 6-5 morning line favorite, No. 1 One in Vermillion, has a big question mark coming into the $100,000 Canterbury Derby on Wednesday at Canterbury Park: the Army Mule colt has never tried turf.

Consider that the next three choices – No. 2 Worthington, No. 3 Golden Bandit and No. 4 We Storm – all have wins on that surface. How well One In Vermillion will handle grass is a fair question to ask of the multiple stakes winner who flirted with the Triple Crown trail earlier this year and comes into his turf debut off a pair of fast wins sprinting on dirt.

Based on the morning line (6-5) versus my fair odds line (7-5), I find that turf question more imposing than the Canterbury line maker thinks the public will. I do see One In Vermillion as the most likely winner, but at potentially odds off a flashy local win at 1-20, I think there could be value elsewhere, especially since Worthington and We Storm both will attract money as fashionable shippers.

No. 3 Golden Bandit took eight tries to break his maiden, but when he did, it was in style on this very turf. It was five lengths back to second and another seven lengths back to third, so he basically destroyed that maiden special weight field. He was 3-5, but the way he won still served notice.

Some might view We Storm's maiden win at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Worthington's stakes performances this year after maiden and allowance wins in Kentucky last year as a sign of more class, but I am a "speed is class" kind of guy. The bottom line for me is that Golden Bandit is faster than those two.

So in this situation, I like to bet a horse such as Golden Bandit to win and then a cold exacta underneath One In Vermillion. This is dependent on that not being the chalk exacta, so watch those will-pays. Regardless, I'm confident we'll get our win price on Golden Bandit.

Another situation to consider is that the Canterbury Derby – as race 8 on the nine-race card – is the anchor leg to both the all-turf-stakes Pick 5 and the $1 all-turf-stakes Pick 3. It is also the penultimate leg of the late Pick 5. Whether I like any prices earlier will determine how much I use One in Vermillion. But if other races are chalky, then Golden Bandit becomes a pretty nice single.

One person who disagrees with my assessment is Canterbury announcer Paul Allen. For his take, see the video below.