Fair-odds analysis: Full-field Gotham offers opportunity

Doing a fair odds line for the Gotham Stakes was one of the trickier exercises lately given the presence of an also eligible who it at least a little bit interesting and that several of the entrants are also entered in a race on Monday at Parx.

Another wrinkle is that four of the 15 entrants are not nominated to the Triple Crown, and at least in the case of the horse I identified as the most likely winner – No. 14 Recruiter – that is a curious $600 savings for a $125,000 sales purchase that was undefeated in four starts at the time of the nomination.

But, against this group, he absolutely fits, and while I doubt he will be 12-1 if he runs and he's half that I'm absolutely a buyer given all the boxes he checks: win in the slop, wins on and off the pace, lots of next-out winners in his company lines, and ability to run faster in the middle of the race than early in the race.

If Recruiter absconds, then either No. 10 Lugan Knight, who has a win at the track and distance, or No. 5 Carmel Road intrigue. Both have shown the same pace versatility as our top pick.

For more on the Gotham and the Pick 5 it is a part of, check out the On the Wrong Lead stream from Thursday night that I joined.