Fair Grounds turf fair odds: Betting on a 'Brilliant' return

Seven horses from the Colonel Bradley Stakes are part of the ten-horse field in the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes presented by Horse Racing Nation, including the superfecta from that turf stakes, but I hope the presence of that recent form helps the price on a horse making his 5-year-old debut.

Brilliant Berti has not raced since finishing third, beaten just a length by Rhetorical in the Turf Mile Stakes in October at Keeneland. This is a similar path as his 4-year-old debut when he was eighth in the Muniz Memorial presented by Horse Racing Nation. That was from way back against a runaway long shot leader in Idratherbeblessed. The layoff and 1 1/8-mile distance are concerns here, but at 4-1 and third choice on the morning line I think the value will be there for a horse who improved last season for trainer Cherie DeVaux, a trainer who can develop horses and have them ready off a layoff.

Kapuna collared Lagynos in the Bradley last out, and they remain the horses to beat but are likely to be overbet. 

If the intent is to sell the Bradley as a race, then Montador is worth a look. I'd want better than the 6-1 morning line, but he looked good in his win last out to close his 3-year-old season at this course, and he should be closer to pace than Brilliant Berti. He is my clear alternative to the top choice if all of the above horses take money.

Wagering wise, the Fair Grounds is the middle leg of an all-stakes Pick 5 and second leg of an all-graded Pick 4 that starts with the Mineshaft Stakes (G3) and concludes with the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Risen Star (G2) for 3-year-olds. I will single Brilliant Berti on my main tickets.