Fair Grounds: Which jockeys offer the best value?
With Fair Grounds opening Thursday, we looked at jockey statistics from the 2024-25 meet to identify key trends.
Jose Ortiz dominated the meet with 97 wins from 340 starts, a 28.5% win rate and a negative 1.1% HRN impact percentage, indicating he was slightly favored by bettors.
Jareth Loveberry was second with 55 wins, posting a 14.3% win rate and a Horse Racing Nation impact percentage of 7.3%.
Ben Curtis posted 49 victories with a 17.5% win rate and a 13.1% HRN impact. Mitchell Murrill finished with 41 wins at an 11.7% win clip with a slightly negative -0.2% HRN impact.
| Jockey | Starts | Wins | Win % | HRN impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ortiz | 340 | 97 | 28.5% | -1.1% |
| Jareth Loveberry | 384 | 55 | 14.3% | 7.3% |
| Ben Curtis | 280 | 49 | 17.5% | 13.1% |
| Mitchell Murrill | 349 | 41 | 11.7% | -0.2% |
| Edgar Morales | 235 | 38 | 16.2% | 13.0% |
| Brian Hernandez Jr. | 184 | 38 | 20.7% | 23.5% |
| Marcelino Pedroza Jr. | 321 | 38 | 11.8% | -8.6% |
| C.J. McMahon | 254 | 31 | 12.2% | 11.2% |
| Axel Concepcion | 264 | 31 | 11.7% | -11.5% |
| Florent Geroux | 151 | 30 | 19.9% | -1.8% |
| Jaime Torres | 277 | 30 | 10.8% | -15.7% |
| Colby Hernandez | 163 | 22 | 13.5% | 34.2% |
| Jose Guerrero | 203 | 21 | 10.3% | -6.6% |
2024 main-track winners look to keep momentum going
Jose Ortiz led the dirt standings with 66 wins and a 28.9% win rate. His performance fell slightly below expectations with a negative 2.6% HRN impact.
Ben Curtis stood out on dirt with 37 wins from 177 starts, a 20.9% win rate and a positive 21.2% HRN impact. Mitchell Murrill posted 32 wins that nearly matched expectations with a negative 0.8% HRN impact.
Jareth Loveberry topped dirt starts with 265 rides. He had 31 wins for an 11.7% win rate but underperformed expectations with a negative 13.4% HRN impact.
Edgar Morales delivered 29 wins from 158 starts, an 18.4% win rate and a positive 17.5% HRN impact. Brian Hernandez impressed with 26 wins from 106 starts, a 24.5% win rate and a positive 28.5% HRN impact.
| Jockey | Dirt starts |
Dirt wins |
Win % | HRN impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ortiz | 228 | 66 | 28.9% | -2.6% |
| Ben Curtis | 177 | 37 | 20.9% | 21.2% |
| Mitchell Murrill | 251 | 32 | 12.7% | -0.8% |
| Jareth Loveberry | 265 | 31 | 11.7% | -13.4% |
| Edgar Morales | 158 | 29 | 18.4% | 17.5% |
| Marcelino Pedroza Jr. | 246 | 27 | 11.0% | -20.8% |
| C.J. McMahon | 194 | 27 | 13.9% | 15.5% |
| Jaime Torres | 193 | 26 | 13.5% | -6.9% |
| Brian Hernandez Jr. | 106 | 26 | 24.5% | 28.5% |
| Axel Concepcion | 180 | 22 | 12.2% | -14.5% |
| Florent Geroux | 87 | 21 | 24.1% | 11.4% |
| Jose Guerrero | 153 | 18 | 11.8% | -7.6% |
| Colby Hernandez | 109 | 18 | 16.5% | 34.8% |
| James Graham | 128 | 17 | 13.3% | 19.8% |
| Kylie Wellington | 118 | 14 | 11.9% | 41.2% |
| Jeiron Barbosa | 142 | 12 | 8.5% | -22.8% |
| Declan Cannon | 66 | 9 | 13.6% | 2.4% |
| Aubrie Green | 89 | 9 | 10.1% | 13.1% |
| David Cohen | 91 | 9 | 9.9% | -15.0% |
| Timothy Thornton | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 24.4% |
Turf specialists emerge from crowded field
Jose Ortiz dominated turf racing with 31 wins from 112 starts for a 27.7% win rate. His performance edged above expectations with a 2.5% HRN impact. Jareth Loveberry posted 23 wins for a 19.3% win rate, delivering significant value with a 58.1% HRN impact.
Brian Hernandez Jr. notched 12 wins from 78 starts for a 13.7% HRN impact. Ben Curtis matched Hernandez in wins with 12 from but posted a negative 6.1% HRN impact.
Marcelino Pedroza Jr. found success on the grass with 11 wins and an impressive 47.4% HRN impact despite a 14.7% win rate.
Several jockeys with limited turf opportunities posted strong numbers. Florent Geroux posted nine wins, but fell below expectations with a negative 23.1% HRN impact. Axel Concepcion also had nine wins for a 10.7% win rate and a negative 3.1% HRN impact.
| Jockey | Turf starts |
Turf wins |
Win % | HRN impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ortiz | 112 | 31 | 27.7% | 2.5% |
| Jareth Loveberry | 119 | 23 | 19.3% | 58.1% |
| Brian Hernandez Jr. | 78 | 12 | 15.4% | 13.7% |
| Ben Curtis | 103 | 12 | 11.7% | -6.1% |
| Marcelino Pedroza Jr. | 75 | 11 | 14.7% | 47.4% |
| Mitchell Murrill | 98 | 9 | 9.2% | 1.8% |
| Axel Concepcion | 84 | 9 | 10.7% | -3.1% |
| Edgar Morales | 77 | 9 | 11.7% | 0.7% |
| Florent Geroux | 64 | 9 | 14.1% | -23.1% |
| Declan Cannon | 61 | 8 | 13.1% | 20.3% |
| Jeiron Barbosa | 67 | 5 | 7.5% | 5.6% |
| C.J. McMahon | 60 | 4 | 6.7% | -11.0% |
| Colby Hernandez | 54 | 4 | 7.4% | 31.3% |
| Jaime Torres | 84 | 4 | 4.8% | -47.8% |
| Jose Guerrero | 50 | 3 | 6.0% | 0.4% |
| Aubrie Green | 23 | 2 | 8.7% | -7.5% |
| James Graham | 76 | 2 | 2.6% | -66.5% |
| Kylie Wellington | 31 | 2 | 6.5% | 89.0% |
| Timothy Thornton | 21 | 1 | 4.8% | -36.8% |
| Erica Murray | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 138.3% |