Fair Grounds fair odds: HRN’s race is loaded with turf talent

Condition-wise, the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes presented by Horse Racing Nation and the Risen Star (G2) on Saturday do not have much in common.

The former is a turf race for older horses, and the latter is a dirt race for 3-year-olds. Both are 1 1/8 miles, but as a bettor, they share another, much more important distinction.

They are competitive races with 12 entrants each.

I hesitated to say great betting races, because these events are both so competitive that, because of takeout, it’s conceivable the public plays it about right, and all the horses I’m excited to bet are underlays.

That’s the win pool, though. With 12 horses I think each race will offer opportunity vertically. Also, the Fair Grounds and Risen Star are the third and fifth legs, respectively, of the all-stakes pick 5. And with my having a strong lean on a single in leg 4, the Rachel Alexandra (G2), these full-field stakes should help make this a juicy sequence.

Similar to my view on the Risen Star, the Fair Grounds has a few key contenders about whom my excitement level is directly proportional to their odds. Harlan Estate intrigues me most from a playability standpoint. I have him as the third-most likely winner and am intrigued that trainer Whit Beckman is 27 percent with blinkers off and with a huge return on investment. The horse has been void of early zip recently, but I think jockey Declan Cannon gets more involved here going longer, and that can make a difference.

Strong Quality and Beatbox are the obvious two, but with Gigante on a two-race win streak and a Grade 2 victory in tow last year, I’m thinking his being over bet could create value on the other two, at least in the multis.