Fair Grounds Oaks odds & analysis: Newcomer could upset
Clairiere and Travel Column present formidable challenges for any other 3-year-old filly in the Grade 2, $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds on Saturday. But neither of them are monsters from a time or speed figure perspective, leaving the door open for a newcomer with the right talent to post a mild upset.
There is one newcomer to the group who possibly offers enough talent to defeat the two favorites, and she sports connections who know how to win big races for fillies.
The Fair Grounds Oaks is carded as Race 13 with a post time of 7:14 EDT.
1. Zaajel, 8-1 (Street Sense – Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 2-0-0 - $84,140): Despite the undefeated 2-for-2 record and presence of strong connections, this filly is hard to recommend. On TimeformUS, she broke her maiden with an 85 and won the Forward Gal Stakes (G3) with an 87 figure. Even for a developing filly, those TimeformUS Speed Figures are too low for this level. For Beyer Speed Figure users, subtract 20 points to see the rough Beyer equivalent. While the stretch out to a two-turn route might help, Zaajel needs to prove herself capable of faster figures. Toss.
2. Moon Swag, 20-1 (Malibu Moon – Brendan Walsh/Adam Beschizza – 5: 2-0-2 - $90,600): Even though Moon Swag endured a wide trip in her third-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2), she is not on the level of Clairiere and Travel Column. Now she faces those same two opponents and an interesting newcomer in Li’l Tootsie. If the pace heats up enough, Moon Swag might finish third again for the second time in a graded stakes race, which is important for her breeding value. For betting purposes, just throw this filly into the bottom slots of trifectas and supers. Use underneath.
3. Souper Sensational, 15-1 (Curlin – Mark Casse/John Velazquez – 4: 2-1-0 - $110,753): On Woodbine’s synthetic course, this filly packs a powerful punch and glides to the wire with ease. The translation to dirt racing has not been simple. She ran well enough in the Silverbulletday Stakes on this course, closing for second and 3 1/4 lengths behind Charlie’s Penny. The troubling part comes from how she had dead aim on the winner and lost a length in mid-stretch rather than close the gap. Then in the Rachel Alexandra, she offered little punch and ended up sixth by 9 1/2 lengths, although in fairness, the comments say she clipped heels. In terms of value, at least the odds go up to double digits this time. In case the pace heats up faster than expected, she is usable in the bottom slots of trifectas and supers. Use underneath.
4. Li’l Tootsie, 4-1 (Tapiture – Thomas Amoss/Luis Saez – 3: 2-1-0 - $73,000): Here is the top selection. In Li’l Tootsie’s Jan. 16 maiden race, she took off in a sensational fashion in the stretch run to win by four lengths over Euphoric, with another six lengths between Euphoric and the third-place Closet Shopper. When the finishing margins spread out, it indicates a quality victory. TimeformUS gave Li’l Tootsie a 107, which is higher than any final speed figure from Clairiere or Travel Column. The concern is that Li’l Tootsie broke her maiden at six furlongs. Although she also won a local optional claiming race on Feb. 12 at 1 1/16 miles, the TimeformUS figure went down to a 96. Either the slop or slow pace affected Li’l Tootsie’s final time, or she wants to sprint. For now, she receives the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps the early fractions of 24.67 and 48.74 made it too difficult to achieve a fast final time, and therefore the TimeformUS figure went down as well. Jockey Luis Saez hops on board for trainer Tom Amoss and owner Joel Politi, the same trainer and owner combination for Serengeti Empress. Amoss has been expressing confidence in pre-race comments. Even though Li’l Tootsie lacks graded stakes experience, the raw talent is there to upset the two favorites. She only needs to run back to the 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure, or even improve upon it. The pick.
5. Obligatory, 5-1 (Curlin – William Mott/Jose Ortiz – 2: 1-0-0 - $28,800): Off a 112-day layoff, Obligatory ran well to break her maiden at Gulfstream on Feb. 7 in a one-mile route. However, she shows only a 96 on TimeformUS for the winning effort. In contrast, BRIS users might feel encouraged by the fact that Obligatory shows a 92 BRIS Speed Rating, which is the highest last-out figure on their scale. With that said, it is not a great sign that the runner-up Front Street ran a distant third in her next start, losing by nine lengths in a Feb. 27 Gulfstream maiden race. The third-place Precipitate had been a non-factor at Aqueduct, losing by 10 1/2 lengths in her career debut. In all likelihood, the TimeformUS figure for Obligatory’s maiden win reflects her ability better than BRIS’ number. But she is liable to improve in her third start. Limit Obligatory to bottom slots, if using her at all. Use underneath.
6. Clairiere, 2-1 (Curlin – Steven Asmussen/Joseph Talamo – 3: 2-1-0 - $270,492): Clairiere deserves her position as the morning-line favorite after defeating Travel Column in the Rachel Alexandra. From a visual standpoint, she won in a more decisive manner than the neck margin suggests, as Travel Column held a one-length cushion at the top of the stretch and Clairiere passed her without any drama. Yet, the final 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure is kind of low for a filly as well respected as she is. Even on BRIS, Clairiere’s Rachel Alexandra figure is only an 86, which is lower than Obligatory’s recent 92 BRIS Speed Rating for breaking her maiden. For some handicappers, figures are not as important as wins. In the case of closers, in many cases their final time is dependent on pace and trip. To counter that, TimeformUS labels the first two fractions of the Rachel Alexandra as fast, suggesting that Clairiere took advantage of a setup. But she did need to wait behind horses approaching the far turn. Clairiere is usable defensively in multi-race wagers, but Li’l Tootsie is more interesting otherwise at higher odds. Win contender.
7. Il Malocchio, 15-1 (Souper Speedy – Kenneth McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 5: 1-2-1 - $103,636): This filly’s dirt debut does not look encouraging on paper or visually. After settling in mid-pack and three lengths behind the front, Il Malocchio had a clear shot at the top of the stretch and could not make any progress. Ultimately, she ran third, losing by a clear five lengths to the winner Curlin’s Catch. Il Malocchio shows only an 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the flat effort, which is unacceptable in this Grade 2 race on the Kentucky Oaks trail. She is overmatched. Toss.?
8. Travel Column, 5/2 (Frosted – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 4: 2-1-1 - $269,184): As stated above, Travel Column took a one-length cushion into the stretch of the Rachel Alexandra. But when Clairiere switched to her outside, Travel Column had no answer for Clairiere’s final move. Although Clairiere won by only a neck, it felt more decisive and clear than that margin. To Travel Column’s credit, she did endure a wide first turn and chased hot early fractions thanks to the run-off leader Off We Go. With a softer pace in store for the Fair Grounds Oaks, Travel Column might secure the lead by default and create enough separation before Clairiere arrives. Then again, she also needs to worry about Li’l Tootsie this time, and that opponent figures to settle closer to the pace. Travel Column shows only a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the runner-up to Clairiere, which is the highest of her career. When Travel Column beat Clairiere in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) last fall, she ran only a 102 on TimeformUS. Travel Column might win this race if she uses her speed through a softer pace. But there is little value in trusting a horse with average speed figures at short odds alone if a promising alternative exists. With that said, Travel Column is usable defensively in multi-race wagers. Win contender.
Conclusion:
If Li’l Tootsie remains the third choice, she offers enough value for a win and/or place bet. This is a talented filly with a bright future for Serengeti Empress’ connections, whether she shows it here or in another graded stakes race.
Clairiere and Travel Column remain win contenders, but they are not exciting from a speed figure perspective. The division lacks a dominant monster, making these two fillies seem like stars even with average final times earned in their short rivalry.